Feature Article

By Paul Carton
June 15, 2009

A couple of decades back it was the Baby Boomers driving new waves of consumer demand, but are they still at the forefront of today’s media and technology transformation?

Surprisingly so, according to the latest ChangeWave survey of 1,660 members of the Baby Boom generation. The benchmark survey of business professionals between the ages of 45 and 63, completed in early May, focused on TV viewing habits vs. home Internet usage.

The results point to a powerful shift occurring among Boomers away from traditional TV towards new types of online services and entertainment.  Importantly, this transformation is affecting lifelong habits.

In the first major finding, Boomers now spend more free time online (12.9 hrs per week on average) than they do watching traditional TV (11.8 hrs per week on average).



What’s more, by a five-to-one margin Boomers are watching less traditional television than they did a year ago. Among this group, 62% say it’s because they’re not as interested in what's on TV these days, and another 26% say they’re spending more time surfing the web.

By Paul Carton
June 8, 2009

Last quarter we saw a leveling off in the rate of decline for business IT spending. But ChangeWave’s latest survey shows U.S. corporate IT spending in the process of rapidly stabilizing – with a dramatically improved outlook now in place for the third quarter.

The ChangeWave survey was conducted May 11-20, and a total of 1,849 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated.

Dramatic Improvement. Twenty-four percent of respondents said their company’s IT spending will decrease, or there will be no spending at all for the third quarter, but that’s a major 17-point improvement since our previous survey in February.

Another 15% said their company's IT spending will increase – 5-points improved and, most importantly, the first recorded uptick in a ChangeWave survey in two and one-half years.



We also askedrespondents if their IT spending was on track thus far in the second quarter, and the results show smaller but unmistakable signs of improvement.

By Paul Carton
June 1, 2009

The signs of improvement reported in our April consumer survey have continued to gain momentum, according to ChangeWave’s latest survey of 2,729 consumers.

The May 5-11 survey shows that while consumer spending remains low by historical standards, we’ve witnessed the most sustained improvement over the past 60 days that we’ve seen in more than 3 years.

We note that coming out of a recession is usually far bumpier than going into one, so while it’s encouraging that the worst appears over it is premature to say that we’re entirely out of the woods yet.

One-in-five U.S. respondents (21%) now say they’ll spend more money over the next 90 days, a big five point jump since April. Another 47% still say they’ll spend less, but that’s eight points better than previously.



The 13-point net gain going forward is the most significant improvement in consumer spending in nearly three and a half years. Moreover, the spending outlook has improved across all income categories, even among lower income households (under $50,000 per year).

By Paul Carton
May 26, 2009

ChangeWave's Healthcare survey of 322 physicians points to a rise in doctor referrals for genetic testing going forward, along with a strong willingness of doctors to refer patients for specific tests like cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

Results show that despite the overall belief that genetic testing is important, doctors still harbor a degree of hesitation with respect to the issues surrounding the tests.  Many report being strong advocates of regulatory controls over the nascent genetic testing industry.  Importantly, only one-in-ten doctors say genetic testing has become an integral part of their practice.

Rising Referrals

Nearly a third of doctors surveyed (30%) now say they’ve recommended or referred patients for a genetic test to asses risk for a specific disease over the past 12 months – an increase of 5-pts since our previous July 2008 survey. Testing patients’ risk for cancer (34%) was the top reason cited by physicians.

The ChangeWave survey also shows increasing demand for genetic testing. Better than one-in-five doctors (21%) report they’re More Likely to recommend or refer patients for genetic testing over the next 12 months, while only 3% say they’re Less Likely



Genetic Testing for Specific Diseases

The vast majority of doctors who have received inquiries about genetic testing say it’s because of patient concern over Risk for Developing a Specific Disease (85%). Another 13% say it’s because of General Health Concerns.

The survey also focused on several specific medical conditions, including Alzheimer’s, asthma, cancer, diabetes, heart disease, multiple sclerosis, and Parkinson’s disease.

By Paul Carton
May 26, 2009

The U.S. cellular service provider market remains a two-horse race between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) – with the former leading in terms of future demand and the latter in terms of customer satisfaction and fewest dropped calls.

These and other key findings arose from a March ChangeWave survey of 4,292 consumers.

Future Share

When asked how likely they were to change service providers in the next 6 months, 13% of consumers said they were very or somewhat likely to switch.

Among that group, only 9% of current AT&T customers said they're likely to switch compared to 11% of Verizon customers – giving AT&T a slight edge in customer loyalty. But where do those consumers who are switching say they’re headed?

A full third (33%) say they’ll go with AT&T – a huge 6-pt jump from December to the highest level since we began asking this question back in 2005. Verizon (24%; up 2-pts), while still competitive, continues to lag behind.



Note that dating back to the period just before the original Apple (AAPL) iPhone rollout, AT&T has managed to stay in first place in terms of future demand.

A coincidence? Not likely.

By Paul Carton
May 18, 2009

After a two-year downward spiral, ChangeWave’s latest corporate software spending survey is picking up unmistakable signs of an improved spending environment going forward.

While overall spending is still contracting, the 90-day outlook points to a dramatic lessening in the rate of decline – a critically important indicator that suggests business software spending could be coming out of recession sooner than expected.

The ChangeWave survey of 1,775 respondents involved with software purchasing in their company was conducted April 16-27, 2009.

Improved Software Spending Going Forward

Better than one-in-ten software buyers (11%) say their company will spend more on software over the next 90 days – 2-pts better than our January survey. And while 26% still say their company will spend less – that’s a huge 13-pt improvement over previously.

There were other promising signs of improvement in terms of corporate capital budgets.

Consumer Demand Steady for iPhone, BlackBerry - But What About the Palm Pre?

By Paul Carton
April 16, 2009

In recent years, ChangeWave consumer surveys have chronicled a seismic shift to smart phones, with Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) locked in a two-horse race while most of their competitors have been caught in a downward spiral.

But does the upcoming Palm Pre launch signal another thoroughbred entering the smart phone race?

Early consumer reaction to the Palm Pre launch was one of several issues looked at in a March 17-23 ChangeWave survey of 4,292 cell phone owners, which also focused on the consumer impact of Apple's just announced iPhone upgrades.

Smart Phone Demand - Next 90 Days

The overall shift to smart phones continues, although a slight dip is forecast for the spring season, as Apple and Research In Motion have no immediate product launches scheduled for the next 90 days.

After the huge launch of the iPhone 3G and the impressive successes of the new Blackberry models, 11.2% of respondents say they'll be buying a smart phone over the next 90 days, 1-pt less than in our December 2008 survey.

Despite this small decline, the 11.2% number is the third-highest percentage recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2005 - and the new product launches and upgrades set for the summer are likely to boost that number as we approach the third quarter.

RIM vs. Apple vs. Palm

Research in Motion's BlackBerry models (41%) continue to maintain RIM as the overall market share leader among consumers, while Apple (24%; up 1-pt) remains firmly in second place.

Of course, future share is what we're most interested in, and that's where we are seeing the first signs of an uptick for Palm.

Fiber-Optic Trumps the Cable and Satellite Providers

By Paul Carton
April 9, 2009

Not so long ago consumers were abandoning traditional over-the-air TV broadcasting for cable and satellite service providers. Times have changed.

The latest ChangeWave consumer survey on TV service provider trends shows the newest entrant - fiber optics - is having a radical impact on the marketplace. The survey of 2,874 U.S. and Canadian respondents was conducted March 4-11, 2009.

Cable Still Leads but Fiber-Optic Providers Have Momentum

We asked respondents which TV service provider they subscribe to. The results from our last two years of surveys show a definitive market transformation is occurring.

While cable continues to hold the lion's share of the market - 63% of respondents say they currently subscribe to a cable TV service - that's 3-pts less than last December and an 8-pt drop from two years ago. At the same time, satellite providers (26%) have held steady.

So where's the growth? It's fiber optic TV service providers - up 3-pts since December 2008 and a five-fold increase in the past two years.

What does this mean at the individual provider level?

Latest Survey Shows a Leveling Off in Rate of Spending Decline

April 2, 2009

ChangeWave's March survey of U.S. consumers points to a continued tough spending environment, with restaurants remaining one of the weakest spending areas. But in a hopeful sign, the rate of decline has leveled off compared to our previous survey.

During the weeks of Feb 17-23 and Mar 3-10, we surveyed consumers on their dining habits to determine - among other things - whether there are any dining categories and restaurant chains showing signs of improvement.

Continued Hard Times

After a 16-month downward spiral the rate of restaurant spending decline is leveling off. Half of respondents (50%) still say they'll spend less money at restaurants going forward; however, that's 2-pts better than the February measure.

Just 5% say they'll be spending more at restaurants - unchanged from our all-time low.

March 27, 2009

The anticipation surrounding Microsoft's new Windows 7 operating system seems to be swelling in direct proportion to the frustration of current Vista users.

But can the new software live up to its hype, or will it prove another Microsoft letdown? To find out ChangeWave surveyed 68 Windows 7 beta testers between February 9 and 17. Here's what we found:

Early Satisfaction Ratings

First, when beta testers were asked how satisfied they were with Windows 7 the results were encouraging - particularly compared to the early satisfaction readings for Vista.

Better than two-in-five respondents (44%) said their company was Very Satisfied with the new Windows 7 product. In comparison, back in a February 2007 ChangeWave survey soon after Vista's release, only 10% said they were Very Satisfied.

Next, we asked respondents to name their specific likes and dislikes for the Windows 7 OS.

By Paul Carton
March 17, 2009

ChangeWave's latest consumer spending survey shows a worsening in U.S. consumer sentiment and expectations.

Seven-in-ten (70%) consumers now believe the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days - 6-pts more than a month ago. Only 7% believe the economy will improve - a decline of 1-pt to the lowest level ever in a ChangeWave survey.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,710 U.S. consumers was conducted March 3-10, 2009, and there were other sentiment indicators that echoed these findings, including:

In terms of actual spending, the best that can be said about the March survey is that the rate of consumer spending going forward is similar to the rate seen in February. In other words, the month over month spending rate is essentially flat.

On the upside, 13% of U.S. respondents now say they'll spend more money over the next 90 days - which is 1-pt better than in February. However, 62% say they'll spend less money, 1-pt worse than previously.

By Paul Carton
March 11, 2009

Last quarter's accelerating U.S. economic freefall has extended right through 1st Quarter 2009 - and a new ChangeWave survey shows yet a further downturn in corporate sales projections and in customer willingness to spend.

Our latest corporate survey, however, also contains glints of hope, including a slight leveling off in the rate of contraction going forward.

But the bottom line is that the U.S. economy remains caught in the clutches of a recession far deeper and more painful than that of 2001 - including alarmingly grim hiring trends and a continued pullback in capital spending. The ChangeWave survey was completed March 3rd, 2009, and a total of 3,076 U.S. respondents participated.

Tailspin Continues in the 1st Quarter

One-in-two respondents (52%) now project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for 1st Quarter 2009 - 1-pt worse than the previous quarter. Only 9% say their company sales will come in Above Plan - a 2-pt decrease.

As the following chart shows, the 1st Quarter (Mar '09) corporate sales projections are the worst ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to the depths of the 2001 recession.

We also asked respondents to rate the current willingness of their existing customers to spend money on their company's products and services, and more than three-quarters (76%) say their customers have either a Yellow Light to spend (i.e., spending is downsized, though not completely stopped) or a Red Light (i.e., spending is virtually on hold).

Just 18% report that their existing customers have a Green Light to spend (i.e., spending is normal).

The U.S. labor market also remains in a dismal state. Only 7% say there are More new hires in their company at this point in the 1st Quarter vs. last quarter - a 1-pt decline since the previous survey. Another 30% say there are Less new hires - a tiny 1-pt improvement from previously, but overall the 2nd worst reading since we began asking this question five years ago.

By Paul Carton
March 4, 2009

The collapse in U.S. business spending we reported last quarter has extended right into the New Year - though ChangeWave's latest corporate IT purchasing survey does show a slight leveling off in the rate of decline for 1st half 2009 and a glint of hope for the 2nd half.

A total of 1,939 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated in the ChangeWave survey, conducted February 9-17, 2009.

Still Bad - But Not Quite As Awful As Last Quarter

Better than two-in-five respondents (41%) say their company's IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) for the 2nd Quarter - an extraordinarily high number, but nonetheless 4-pts improved over our November survey.

Only 10% say their IT spending will increase - unchanged from previously.

Thus while the decline in planned IT spending is the second worst on record for a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2001, it's not quite as bad as the huge nose-dive we recorded last quarter. Statistically speaking, we are witnessing a slight leveling off in the rate of decline.

We also asked respondents if their IT spending was on track thus far in the 1st Quarter, and here the results are virtually a mirror image of our previous survey.

Nearly four-in-ten respondents (38%) say they've spent "Less than Planned" so far in the 1st quarter, while just 7% have spent "More than Planned."

Regarding individual IT categories, Servers (Change in Net Difference Score = -3) has registered the biggest slowdown since the previous quarter. Networking (-2), PCs (-1), and Security (-1) also look weaker.

Even As Netbook Sales Remain Firm

By Paul Carton
February 24, 2009

While the technology is getting faster, consumer PC demand keeps getting slower and slower.

There's been yet another decline in PC buying, according to ChangeWave's latest survey of 3,115 consumers. The February 2-9, 2009 survey focused on PC purchasing trends, including the demand for low-end "Netbook" computers.

Tough Times for PCs

Going forward, planned PC buying remains at the lowest levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Only 4% of respondents say they'll buy a desktop in the next 90 days - 1-pt less than in our January 2009 survey. In addition, just 6% say they'll buy a laptop - unchanged from previously.

We also note that overall Consumer Electronics spending is at the lowest level since we began measuring consumer purchasing in 2002. Only 12% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days, compared to 43% who say they'll spend less - clear signs of further deterioration in this space.

Demand For Netbooks Remains Firm

Our previous survey showed low-cost, highly portable laptops with smaller screens - popularly known as Netbooks - have been one of the few beneficiaries of this tough spending environment. The latest survey results reinforce this finding.

Going forward, 18% of respondents say that the laptop they plan on buying in the next 90 days will be a Netbook, which is 4-pts higher than in January. The list of leading Netbook manufacturers includes Acer and ASUS.

By Paul Carton
February 18, 2009

The tiny signs of stabilization we picked up in our January consumer spending survey proved extremely short-lived.

ChangeWave's February national survey results point to yet another leg downward in U.S. consumer spending going forward. Consumer sentiment has also taken a big hit, with two-in-three respondents now believing the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,701 U.S. consumers was conducted February 2-9, 2009.

Grim Spending Outlook

While our January consumer survey contained intriguing signs of a leveling off in the rate of spending decline, the February results show a reversal and represent the worst spending outlook ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Better than three-in-five U.S. respondents (61%) say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 4-pts worse than our early January survey.

Just 12% say they'll spend more money - 1-pt worse than previously.

Low Oil Prices and Recession Hurt Demand – But Hope from Washington Boosts Future Expectations

February 10, 2009

Even as low oil prices and a severe recession have taken their toll on alternative energy demand, a green-oriented presidential administration has brightened the hopes for renewed growth in the sector - particularly for solar and wind power.

These are some of the key findings from ChangeWave's latest Alternative Energy Industry survey, conducted December 29, 2008 through January 5, 2009. A total of 210 respondents working in the industry participated.

Industry Trends - Past 12 Months

Industry respondents report the Solar sector (51%; unchanged) has experienced the most rapid economic growth over the past 12 months - similar to the findings of the August 2008 survey. Wind Power (43%) came in second; however, that number is 6-pts lower than previously.

The Hybrid/Electric Vehicle sector (23%; down 9-pts) continues to take a hit, with lower gas prices putting a significant damper on demand. Biomass (20%; up 3-pts) and Fuel Cells (10%; up 4-pts) bring up the rear, though each has shown some improvement since the August measure.

By Paul Carton
February 3, 2009

Everyone knows consumers have ratcheted down their spending, but how badly is the negative purchasing environment affecting consumer PC sales?

Very badly, according to our latest ChangeWave consumer survey. And despite the accolades greeting Apple's recent earnings announcement, the ChangeWave survey shows the California manufacturer will be especially hard hit this quarter by the continued economic downturn.

The January 5-12 ChangeWave survey of PC buying among 3,476 consumers also looked at another trend bedeviling Apple - the increased demand for low-end Netbook computers.

Tightening PC Market

The survey revealed a post-holiday consumer PC market that has turned significantly weaker. Just 6% of respondents say they plan on buying a laptop in the next 90 days - 2-pts lower than in our November 2008 survey. At the same time, 5% say they'll buy a desktop, down 1-pt from previously.

These numbers are both record lows for PC buying plans in a ChangeWave survey.

By Paul Carton
January 28, 2009

The latest ChangeWave survey on cellular service providers shows the battle between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) is raging on.

The December 9-15, 2008 survey asked 3,800 respondents to identify their current cellular service provider, and AT&T tops the list with 31% - up 1-pt from the previous survey in September. Verizon (30%) came in a very close second, also up 1% from previously.

Sprint Nextel (S) (10%; down 1-pt) and T-Mobile (10%; unchanged) are still far back at the rear of the pack.

In terms of customer satisfaction, however, the results are quite different. The battle isn't even close.

As the following chart shows, Verizon (49%) holds a commanding lead over AT&T (30%), in terms of the percentage of its customers who say they are very satisfied with their cellular service provider.

Once again, T-Mobile (27%) and Sprint Nextel (25%) bring up the rear.

By Paul Carton
January 14, 2009

ChangeWave's latest survey contains some intriguing signs that consumer spending may finally be stabilizing after a prolonged, horrendous slowdown.

For the first time in eight months we're seeing signs of a tiny spending uptick. Moreover, there's an improvement in consumer sentiment and expectations going forward.

But don't break out the champagne. The overall spending environment remains fiercely negative and this momentary improvement may well prove short-lived - similar to what happened after the tiny May 2008 uptick that occurred as a result of the stimulus tax rebate program.

The combination of a new year, a new presidential administration, and lower inflation are likely contributors to the stabilization seen in this latest ChangeWave survey of 2,798 U.S. consumers, conducted Jan 5 - 9, 2009. Here's a quick look at the good and the bad.

The Good

While overall spending still looks terrible, the 90-day outlook is not quite as horrible as it was in last month's survey (December 2008).

Better than half (57%) of U.S. respondents still say they'll spend less over the next 90 days than they did a year ago - but that's 3-pts better than in the December survey. Another 13% say they'll spend more - 2-pts better than previously.

By Paul Carton
January 13, 2009

It's been a rough ride lately for the U.S. economy, and nowhere has this been more evident than at your favorite restaurant.

According to ChangeWave's December consumer survey, it looks like more belt tightening went on last month when it comes to dining out. The survey of 1,308 consumers focused on dining habits and found a further weakening in restaurant spending.

More than half of respondents (51%) said they'll be spending less money at restaurants going forward - an all-time high in a ChangeWave survey. Only 7% said they'll be spending more, unchanged from November.

The year-over-year decline (Dec 2008 vs. Nov 2007) fell to an unprecedented 41-pts.

Moreover, among those dining out less often, nearly half (47%) say it's because they're "Saving More Money" - a full 25-pts higher than our September survey. At the same time, there has been a 10-pt increase in the percentage of consumers who say they're Eating More Meals at Home (48%).

But which types of restaurant chains are getting hardest hit? And are there any categories showing signs of improvement?

By Paul Carton
December 22, 2008

Research In Motion (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL) continue their smart phone battle for the hearts and minds of consumers, according to the latest ChangeWave survey. The survey shows Apple enjoying another good quarter in the aftermath of its 3G iPhone release.

But while RIM sales momentum has been sluggish in recent quarters, its new BlackBerry product launches have unleashed a jump in consumer planned buying that suggests a full-scale battle with Apple for market supremacy in 2009.

So are the new BlackBerry products strong enough to capitalize on the increased consumer interest?

The ChangeWave survey of 3,803 cell phone owners takes a close look at smart phone market trends, including consumer reaction to RIM's launch of the BlackBerry Storm and how it compares to the Apple iPhone. The December 9-15, 2008 survey was conducted just weeks after the Storm's initial release.

Smart Phone Market Demand

The overall growth rate for the smart phone market has contracted since our previous survey, but it's still positive despite the recessionary climate. A total of 12.2% of respondents plan on buying a smart phone over the next 90 days, 0.3% more than previously

Current Market Share: Apple vs. RIM vs. Palm. While RIM (41%) is still the consumer market share leader, it has fallen 1-pt since our previous survey in September to its lowest percentage of the last 12 months.

At the same time, Apple (23%; up 6-pts) has witnessed explosive growth - up 6-pts just since September. Importantly, its overall market share has more than doubled in the past six months - a direct result of the July release of the 3G iPhone.

Taken together, Apple and RIM now control two-thirds of the smart phone market, as smaller/weaker players such as Palm (9%) have proven unable to compete.

By Paul Carton
December 11, 2008

In the aftermath of the massive consumer spending breakdown seen in our November consumer survey, the December survey does show the rate of decline stabilizing. Nonetheless, the 90-day outlook remains the worst on record in a ChangeWave survey.

Signs of the consumer retreat include record numbers saying they're spending less because they're trying to save more money and to reduce debt.

Consumer sentiment has also taken a direct hit since November, with two-in-three respondents now believing the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days - 9-pts more than a month ago.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,715 U.S. consumers was conducted December 2 - 9, 2008.

Grim Spending Outlook

Three-in-five (60%) U.S. respondents say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 1-pt worse than our previous survey in November 2008. Just 11% say they'll spend more money - 1-pt better than previously.

Thus after four consecutive surveys of progressively deeper spending contractions, the December results at last show a leveling off in the rate of decline. Still, the 90-day outlook remains astonishingly grim.

By Paul Carton
December 5, 2008

Most everyone knows it's a jungle out there for the U.S. economy, but how does this recession measure up to the last one we lived through in 2001?

According to ChangeWave's latest corporate survey - conducted November 20th through December 1st - the U.S. economy is caught in the clutches of a recession far deeper and more painful than anything seen back in 2001.

The ChangeWave survey of 3,029 U.S. respondents found alarmingly low 4th Quarter sales projections, abysmal visibility going forward, a deteriorating job market and an unprecedented pullback in capital spending - and that's just for starters. Here's the snapshot:

4th Quarter Economic Freefall

A whopping one-in-two respondents (51%) project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for 4th Quarter 2008 - 16-pts worse than the previous quarter. Only 11% say their company sales will come in Above Plan - a 7-pt decrease from previously.

As the following chart shows, these corporate sales projections are the worst ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to the depths of the 2001 recession

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By Paul Carton
November 24, 2008

It's hard to hide from the downbeat headlines these days - which pretty much sums up what we've been finding in the PC sector.

But there are small glimmers of hope. ChangeWave's latest survey on consumer PC buying shows weaker demand for the holidays - yet there are also positive signs for Apple (AAPL), and most surprisingly, for Dell (DELL).

The October 23 - November 3, 2008 ChangeWave survey of 3,699 consumers focused on personal computer demand for the next 90 days.

First, here's the bad news:

PC Market Ain't What It Used To Be

Just one year ago, 11% of respondents planned to buy a laptop in the next 90 days, compared to only 8% in the latest survey. A similar drop has occurred for desktops, with 8% planned buyers last November dropping to just 6% currently.

The PC slowdown is occurring in tandem with the weakest holiday electronics spending levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey. Typically, we see a big pop in electronics spending for the holidays - but not this year.

Only 19% of respondents say they'll spend more on consumer electronics over the next 90 days compared to 43% who say less - a net 40-pts worse than one year ago.

By Paul Carton
November 20, 2008

ChangeWave's latest corporate IT purchasing survey shows an accelerating collapse in U.S. business spending that has reached historic proportions - with record pullbacks occurring both in the current 4th Quarter and going forward.

In one of the survey's few upbeat findings, the corporate smart phone market continues to show growth - with Research in Motion (RIM) maintaining its huge lead, but Apple (AAPL) continuing to make inroads in small to medium-sized businesses.

A total of 1,926 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated in the ChangeWave survey, conducted November 6-12, 2008.


U.S. Corporate IT Spending Breakdown

Simply put, the IT spending projections for 1st Quarter 2009 are abysmal - the worst ever for a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2001. An unprecedented 45% of respondents say their company's IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) in the 1st Quarter - 16-pts worse than our previous survey.

Only 10% say spending will increase - a 3-pt drop from previously.

By Paul Carton
November 18, 2008

Will the economic recession lead to a major worldwide decline in the water project spending worldwide?

Quite possibly, according to the latest ChangeWave survey on water industry trends, which shows tough financial times are causing a dramatic slowdown in planned water project expenditures.

Just one-in-three water industry respondents (33%) say overall spending will increase during the next year - less than half the percentage we saw in our February 2008 survey. Another 28% say spending will decrease - a 7-fold jump from previously.

The ChangeWave survey, conducted October 16 - 22, 2008, was composed of 116 respondents who work for companies in the water industry.

The one silver lining in the results is that even though the water spending growth rate is projected to plummet, these respondents still project positive growth - albeit by a very slight margin.

Dismal 90-Day Outlook Hits All Major Spending Categories

By Paul Carton
November 12, 2008

If you think October was bad for U.S. retailers, wait till you see what's in store for November.

ChangeWave's latest consumer spending survey shows yet another giant downturn in U.S. consumer spending going forward. And relatively speaking, it's far more pronounced than the October downturn.

The survey of 2,763 U.S. consumers, completed November 3rd, focused on spending patterns for the next 90 days, including the holiday season. Here's what we found:

Grim Consumer Spending Outlook

Nearly three-in-five (59%) respondents now say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 7-pts worse than previously. Only one-in-ten (10%) say they'll spend more - 8-pts worse than previously.

"These findings strongly support the thesis that fourth-quarter earnings will be far more painful than currently expected," said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing.

But why are consumers spending less? Saving More Money (33%; up 7-pts) and Reducing Debt (31%; up 2-pts) were cited as the dominant reasons. Reduced Income (33%; up 7-pts) has also shot up as a main reason.

AT&T holds lead in new customers; Verizon still tops in satisfaction

By Paul Carton
November 12, 2008

Can you hear me now?

Apparently yes - if you are one of the two leading cellular service providers.

In September, we conducted a consumer survey on cellular service provider trends, and took a closer look at what is now clearly a two-horse race for leadership of the industry between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ).

A total of 2,883 members of the ChangeWave Research Network participated.

In the hotly contested battle for current market share among cell phone owners, AT&T (30%; unchanged) holds a slight market share lead over Verizon (29%; unchanged).

Verizon, however, is still the clear favorite in terms of customer satisfaction.

Currently, 43% say they are Very Satisfied with Verizon's service. AT&T (29%) is a distant second, followed by T-Mobile (24%) and Sprint/Nextel (S; 20%).

By Paul Carton

November 4, 2008

A greater than expected pullback is occurring in software spending.

That's according to ChangeWave's latest corporate software survey, which points to a striking deterioration in software spending plans for the next 90 days. Moreover, in a sharp reminder of the severity of the current U.S. recession, the purchasing decline cuts across all software categories.

The ChangeWave survey was conducted October 6-15, 2008, and a total of 1,841 respondents involved with their company's software spending participated.

Software Industry Faces Hard Times Ahead

In the most telling finding of the survey, 40% of corporate software purchasers now say their company will spend less on software over the next 90 days - a whopping 15-points worse than the previous ChangeWave survey in July.

Only 8% say they'll spend more - 4-pts worse than previously.

By Paul Carton

October 28, 2008

Steve Jobs must be keeping a close eye on our ChangeWave survey findings.

In a highly unusual move, he participated in Apple earnings phone call last week to ensure investors that despite the economic slowdown there's no reason to worry. And he did so even though Apple's outlook going forward came in well below the Street's expectations - exactly as our September ChangeWave survey had predicted.

In the conference call, CFO Peter Oppenheimer estimated Apple's sales would come in between $9-10 billion for the December quarter - well under the $10.7 billion that had been anticipated. He also said earnings per share would fall between $1.06 and $1.35 - also far less than the Street's $1.67 consensus estimate.

In our September PC spending survey of 4,262 consumers, we found Apple's real problem wasn't Mac sales over the previous 90 days - sales looked good. The problem was the outlook for Macs going forward.

By Paul Carton

October 21, 2008

"Subdue your appetites, my dears, and you've conquered human nature."
--Charles Dickens

If Dickens were alive, he'd probably say it's been the "worst of times" lately for the economy at large. Nowhere is this more evident than in the restaurant industry.

Our latest ChangeWave Restaurant Spending surveys show consumers continuing to cut back on their restaurant expenditures. But in these extraordinarily tough times, which types of restaurant chains are being hardest hit? And are there any categories showing signs of improvement?

To find out, we surveyed consumers on their dining habits during the weeks of September 3-9 (n = 1,005) and September 16-25 (n = 4,067).

Next 90 Days - Restaurant Spending Cutbacks Continue

Spending on restaurants has fallen steeply (a net 6-pts) since our previous survey in August. More than four-in-ten respondents (44%) now tell us they'll be spending less on restaurants over the next 90 days. Only 6% say they'll be spending more.