Feature Article

By Paul Carton
January 4, 2010

Google’s (GOOG) Android mobile operating system was first introduced more than a year ago, and hardly made a ripple in the smart phone market – until now.

ChangeWave’s December 9-14 survey of 4,068 consumers shows the Android operating system roiling the smart phone market, with Motorola’s new Droid smart phone the biggest and most immediate beneficiary.

Among respondents who currently own a smart phone, 4% say they’re using Google’s Android operating system – a 3-pt jump since our survey in September.

But more importantly, 21% of those planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’d prefer to have the Android OS on their new phone – a monstrous 15-pt jump in just three months.

To put this in context, three months ago Android OS was tied for last place in consumer preference among the major mobile operating systems. But since then it has surged into second place ahead of all competitors except the iPhone OS X (28%) – which remains the number one choice for operating systems, although down 4-pts from previously.

By Jean Crumrine
December 29, 2009

A December ChangeWave survey of 2,690 U.S. consumers shows the overall spending outlook continuing to improve, led by a surge of momentum in consumer electronics spending for the holidays.

One-in-four U.S. consumers (25%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – up 2-pts since the previous survey in November. While 37% say they’ll spend less – that’s unchanged from previously.

By Andy Golub
December 22, 2009

ChangeWave’s November corporate IT spending survey points to an uptick in IT spending for 1st Quarter 2010 – midst the strongest growth rate in 2 years.

Regarding PCs, the release of the Windows 7 operating system is the key factor driving growth. Nearly three-in-four (73%) of the 1,753 corporate IT buyers say their company will be buying Laptops and 69% Desktops in the 1st Quarter – the highest levels for both since February 2008.

By Jean Crumrine
December 15, 2009

ChangeWave’s latest IT spending survey points to an uptick in corporate IT spending for 1st Quarter 2010 – and the strongest growth rate of the past two years.

A total of 1,753 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated in the November 9-20 ChangeWave survey.

Looking ahead, 22% of respondents report their company’s IT spending will increase for 1st Quarter 2010 – a 4-pt improvement since our previous survey in August. And while 21% say their company’s IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) – that’s still a 4-pt improvement from previously.

By Paul Carton
December 4, 2009

Overall consumer spending is holding steady, even as we've picked up major improvements in holiday spending for the 2009 season.

In short, overall consumer spending is virtually the same as in our previous ChangeWave survey. But holiday spending is extraordinarily better than a year ago (November 2008), when just 10% of respondents said they'd be spending more and 59% less.

Importantly, the survey of 2,954 U.S. consumers, completed November 10th, shows holiday spending is going to be far better than the depressed levels of a year ago – though nowhere near as strong as in the three years prior to the recession, as the following chart points out:

Toyota and Honda Lead – But Ford Shows Surprising Momentum

By Andy Golub
November 24, 2009

In the aftermath of Cash for Clunkers, which auto manufacturers are going to dominate the market going forward and which are destined to be left behind?

Two recent ChangeWave surveys took a close-up look at the auto market – including the cars that consumers are most likely to buy over the next year and the impact that bankruptcy and the federal bailout of U.S. auto manufacturers has had on consumers.

A Dip in Auto Buying Plans

For the second month in a row we’re seeing a pullback in automobile spending. Our October 1-12 survey of 2,731 respondents found just 5% who say they’ll spend More on autos over the next 90 days – down 2-pts from previously. Another 23% say they’ll spend Less.

By Paul Carton
November 17, 2009

President Obama’s release of $3.4 billion to help build the “smart” electric grid is just one component of a $787 billion stimulus package that’s having a huge impact on U.S. infrastructure spending. But what types of infrastructure projects are benefiting most from federal stimulus dollars and which companies are winning and losing as a result?

To find out, we surveyed 313 members of the ChangeWave Research Network who work for companies involved with infrastructure projects.

The September 29 – October 5 survey is a follow-up from our March 2009 infrastructure survey, and focused primarily on spending within the Transportation, and Electricity/Smart Grid sectors.

Sectors Benefiting Most from Federal Infrastructure Dollars

Respondents were asked which infrastructure areas they think will benefit most from the U.S. economic stimulus package over the next 12 months.

Similar to our March survey results, Transportation infrastructure (56%) remains the biggest winner, followed by Alternative Energy infrastructure (43%).



We note that Water infrastructure (21%) has experienced the largest increase since our previous survey – jumping a full 10-pts.

By Paul Carton
November 10, 2009

For the fourth consecutive ChangeWave survey, corporate software buying continues to improve.

Moreover, the 90-day outlook in ChangeWave’s latest corporate software survey is the best we’ve seen in two years. Improved corporate spending is occurring across most major software categories – led by Data Storage, Customer Relationship Management, Virtualization, and Business Intelligence software.

The survey of 1,746 respondents involved with software purchasing in their company was conducted October 8-21, 2009.

Corporate Software Spending Outlook

A total of 16% of respondents say their company will spend more on software over the next 90 days – which is 4-pts improved over the previous survey in July. Just 18% say they’ll spend less – also 4-pts better than previously.

By Paul Carton
November 6, 2009

ChangeWave’s latest Consumer PC survey shows planned computer buying going forward has jumped to its highest level in nearly two years.

All told, 9% of the 3,129 respondents surveyed say they plan to buy a laptop in the next 90 days and 6% a desktop – representing a more than 15% increase in projected demand just in the past month alone.



It appears Microsoft’s just released Windows 7 operating system is driving much of this momentum – and is having a direct impact on major PC manufacturers including Apple (AAPL), Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), among others.

By Jean Crumrine
October 27, 2009

These are heady times for the smart phone market, with consumer buying plans near record levels. Moreover, electronics spending in general shows signs of a pick up. But what impact are the new Apple iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre models having on the market?

A September 14-21 survey by ChangeWave Research provides an up-close look at the impact of the new Apple (APPL) and Palm (PALM) offerings – along with an update on Research In Motion (RIMM) and overall smart phone industry trends going forward.

The survey of 4,255 consumers shows strong growth continues in the smart phone market, with 39% of respondents now reporting they own a smart phone – up 2-pts since June and nearly double the level of two years ago.

By Jean Crumrine
October 23, 2009

Following two consecutive monthly improvements, ChangeWave’s latest survey of U.S. consumers shows the spending outlook holding steady in October.

One-in-four U.S. consumers (25%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – down 1-pt since the previous survey in September. But while two-in-five (40%) say they’ll spend less – that’s actually 1-pt improved from previously.



In short, overall spending among consumers continues to remain at the highest level in a ChangeWave survey since May 2008 – but has not improved since our previous survey in September.

By Mike Wrobel
October 13, 2009

After four months of little to no change, two recent ChangeWave consumer surveys show clear signs of improvement for the restaurant industry – with Olive Garden (DRI), Red Lobster (DRI), Chipotle (CMG), Maggiano’s (EAT) and Starbucks (SBUX) showing the most momentum.

To start, better than one-in-ten respondents (11%) now say they’ll spend more money at restaurants going forward – 1-pt improved over August.



Another 36% say they'll be spending less, also 1-pt better than previously.

By Paul Carton
October 6, 2009

ChangeWave’s latest corporate survey shows the U.S. economy continuing to recover, but compared to the major improvements seen last quarter the rate of recovery has slowed.

The August 24-September 2 survey of 3,006 corporate respondents shows a slight improvement in third quarter sales. Signs of progress have also occurred in sales pipeline projections and in capital spending going forward. Yet while the overall picture still points towards an end to the U.S. recession, the slowing rate of improvement is a key issue that needs to be watched closely.

Importantly, the current survey also shows no further easing of the U.S. credit crunch – even though we had picked up clear improvements in our previous survey. The best that can be said at present, is the credit crisis does not appear to be getting any worse.

U.S. Economic Growth

Two-in-five respondents (41%) now say that their company sales will come in Below Plan for third quarter 2009 – although that’s three points better than the previous survey. Another 15% say their company sales will come in Above Plan – which represents a two point uptick.

By Paul Carton
September 29, 2009

A new ChangeWave survey of 2,719 U.S. consumers shows spending is continuing to improve going forward, led by upticks in consumer electronics, durable goods for the home, restaurant spending and household repairs/improvements.

Tempering these findings, the September survey shows large numbers of consumers are still hunkered down attempting to repair their finances. Nonetheless, things are looking significantly more positive for consumers as we head towards the crucial holiday spending season.

Improved Spending for September

Better than one-in-four U.S. consumers (26%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – up 2-pts since the previous survey in August. While 41% still say they’ll spend less, that’s 3-pts improved from previously.

By Paul Carton
September 22, 2009

There’s a rebound occurring in water project spending over the next 12 months – largely driven by the U.S. government’s economic stimulus program.

These are the results of a July ChangeWave survey of 101 respondents working for companies in the water industry.

Top Winners and Losers

Water Infrastructure Repair and Replacement remains the top water industry sector – with 71% of industry respondents saying it will attract the Most Spending over the next two years and only 8% the Least Spending (Net Difference Score = +63).

Wastewater Treatment (+27) is also seen as a winner.



On the downside, Desalination (-29) and Water Metering (-23) are expected to attract the least spending.

By Paul Carton
September 15, 2009

Last quarter we saw corporate IT spending in the process of rapidly stabilizing. Our latest ChangeWave survey shows the rate of recovery is slower this quarter – but on the positive side things are still continuing to improve and there are signs of a bigger uptick in store for 1st Half 2010.

The ChangeWave survey was conducted August 10-19, and 1,801 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated.

Looking ahead, 18% of respondents said their company’s IT spending will increase for the fourth quarter – a three point improvement since our May survey.

However, one-in-four respondents (25%) said that their company’s IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) – which is one point worse than previously.

By Paul Carton
September 8, 2009

Enough time has passed for early buyers to have acclimated themselves to the Palm Pre and the Apple iPhone 3GS, so in early August ChangeWave conducted a survey of new owners to see what they think – including which features they like best and dislike the most.

The survey of 198 Apple iPhone 3GS owners and 38 Palm Pre owners also looked at overall customer satisfaction and how well each has lived up to or fallen short of user expectations.

Apple iPhone 3GS. The initial customer satisfaction results for the new Apple iPhone 3GS surpass that of any previous smart phone model we’ve measured in our ChangeWave consumer surveys over the past eight years, with 82% of new owners saying they’re Very Satisfied and 17% Somewhat Satisfied – for a combined near-perfect satisfaction rating.



Palm Pre. While the initial Palm Pre numbers are not as high, the new model’s satisfaction rating is exceptional for a new product release. Nearly half (45%) of Palm Pre owners report they are Very Satisfied with their new smart phone and another 42% say they’re Somewhat Satisfied – for a combined 87% Satisfaction Rating.

To put this in context, BlackBerry manufacturer Research In Motion and Apple are the only other smart phone manufacturers to attain such high Very Satisfied levels – and in this case Palm is accomplishing it with a brand new product release, a very significant achievement.

By Andy Golub
September 1, 2009

Solar and Wind will be driving the alternative energy sector for the next 12-24 months, according to ChangeWave’s July survey of 200 industry respondents.

Hybrid/Electric Vehicles are also on the upswing, as are ‘Smart Grid’ technologies, which are seen as a big beneficiary of new federal energy initiatives and private sector spending.

Here’s a look at key survey findings:

Industry Trends – Solar and Wind Continue to Lead

Wind sector projections have dropped a bit since our previous survey, although it was still considered the best performer of the past 12 months by our alternative energy industry respondents.

Looking at the next one-to-two years, industry respondents believe the Solar sector (53%; up 5-pts) will achieve the most economic growth, with the Wind sector coming in second (36%; down 4-pts) and Hybrid/Electric Vehicles in third (34%; up 4-pts).

By Jean Crumrine
August 25, 2009

ChangeWave’s latest consumer spending survey points to a slight uptick in U.S. consumer spending going forward – reversing the pullback found in our July survey.

But even though we’re seeing a positive uptick, there is little indication of any major spending expansion in the works for consumers. To the contrary, looking at the longer term, an astonishing one-in-three consumers report they’ve permanently changed their purchasing behavior and spending habits because of the recession – to focus on cutting costs and savings.

The survey, completed August 5th, was composed of 2,705 U.S.consumers.

Slight Uptick in Spending for August

Nearly one-in-four U.S. consumers (24%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – up 2-pts since our previous survey in July. While 44% still say they’ll spend less, that’s 1-pt better than previously.



We note that spending is at exactly the same level registered in August 2008.

By Paul Carton
August 18, 2009

ChangeWave’s latest corporate software survey shows business purchasing continues to improve even as the pace of the recovery slows. Simply put, the uptick in spending for the next 90-days is not as pronounced as the rate of improvement we saw in April.

But the good news is that for the third software purchasing survey in a row we’re seeing clear improvement – particularly in the Virtualization, Data Storage, and Business Intelligence software spaces.

A total of 1,768 respondents involved with software purchasing in their company participated in the July 13-22 ChangeWave survey.

The Recovery Continues – But at a Slower Pace

Better than one-in-ten buyers (12%) now say their company will spend more on software over the next 90 days – 1-pt better than in our April survey. While 22% still say they’ll spend less – that’s a 5-pt improvement over previously and the best reading in 18 months.

By Paul Carton
August 11, 2009

Recent ChangeWave consumer surveys have revealed a shift occurring away from traditional TV viewing towards new types of online services and entertainment – a trend with worrisome long term implications for traditional TV service providers.

But focusing on the short term, a recent ChangeWave survey of 2,922 U.S. and Canadian consumers identified winners and losers in the current market share battle among TV service providers.

Cable Leads But Fiber Looks Strong

According to our latest survey, Cable (65%) still owns the bulk of the TV market, even though it’s been slowly ticking downward for much of the past 2+ years. We note, however, that they have gained 2-pts since our previous survey in March.

At the same time, Satellite providers (25%; down 1-pt) have remained relatively flat, even as the core growth story over the past two years has shifted to the fiber-optic TV service providers (11%). But what does this mean at the individual provider level?

By Mike Wrobel
July 28, 2009

There are signs of improvement within certain pockets of the restaurant industry but the pace of overall growth has slowed, according to two recent ChangeWave consumer surveys.

There were, however, a handful of standout winners.

First, as reported to our ChangeWave Research Network Members on June 30th, Starbucks (SBUX; +9) exhibited "by far the biggest improvement of any coffee shop or restaurant surveyed."

Nearly a month later on July 21st, Starbucks released their earnings and easily blew past Street expectations. As MarketWatch reported it "Starbucks swung to a fiscal third-quarter profit from a year-earlier loss, and showed that its store traffic is improving even as the recession drags on."

Upon the announcement Starbucks immediately rose almost 20% – yet one more example of a ChangeWave survey uncovering the trend weeks ahead of the Street.

By Paul Carton
July 21, 2009

The mixed picture we reported back in June has worsened in ChangeWave’s July consumer spending survey. And for the first time in four months we’re seeing an actual pullback in the 90-day spending outlook going forward.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,681 U.S. consumers, completed July 6th, has also picked up a significant worsening in consumer sentiment and expectations.

But is this new pullback simply a case of summer doldrums and the normal type of bumpiness we also saw coming out of the last recession – or is it the start of a further sustained slowdown?

A Consumer Spending Setback

After three consecutive months of improvements, our July survey has registered a setback in U.S. consumer spending.



Better than two-in-five U.S. respondents (45%) now say they'll spend less over the next 90 days – 2-pts worse than the previous survey in June. Only 22% now say they'll spend more – 3-pts worse than previously.

By Andy Golub
July 8, 2009

ChangeWave's latest Corporate IT survey shows U.S. tech spending in the process of rapidly stabilizing - with a dramatically improved outlook for the 3rd Quarter.

The findings also point to the first uptick in business PC spending in 18 months, with a 4-pt jump in the percentage of respondents who say their company will buy laptops (71%) and desktops (68%) in the 3rd Quarter.

But what does this mean for the major PC manufacturers - and for the upcoming release of Microsoft's Windows 7?

iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre Spearhead the Momentum

By Paul Carton
July 7, 2009

Overall smart phone ownership continues to rise, according to a June 9-15 survey by ChangeWave research, with 37% of respondents now reporting they own a smart phone.

Importantly, 14.4% say they plan on buying a smart phone in the next 90 days, the highest percentage ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

The survey of 4,063 respondents focused on consumer smart phone market trends, including demand for the new Palm (PALM) and Apple (AAPL) offerings.

By Paul Carton
July 1, 2009

ChangeWave's latest survey presents a mixed picture of the U.S. consumer. Overall spending is still rising in June, but far more shopping dollars are flowing towards the gas tank - leaving fewer dollars to spend on things like consumer electronics items and household repairs/improvements.

So while our June 1-10 survey of 2,708 U.S. consumers points to some improvements in the 90-day outlook, other factors - including higher energy costs - are resulting in a spending pullback within key categories.

To top it off, after the huge gains of recent months, consumer sentiment and expectations have turned decidedly flat.

Overall Spending Still Rising in June

The good news is that one-in-four U.S. consumers (25%) now say they'll spend more money over the next 90 days, up four points since our previous survey in May. While 43% still say they'll spend less, that's also four points better than previously.

We note that this is the third monthly uptick in a row for overall spending, the longest sustained improvement for U.S. consumers in two years.

Does it Predict the Movement of the S&P 500?

By Paul Carton
June 25, 2009

Ever since 2001, corporate spending on information technology has been considered a key leading indicator in our ChangeWave surveys.

The latest ChangeWave IT spending survey appears to be no exception. Its findings suggest we are fast approaching the tail end of the current U.S. recession.

But just how accurate a measure is corporate IT spending for predicting the future direction of the U.S. economy anyway?

Here's what we did to find out.

First, the following chart appears to show U.S. corporate tech spending in the process of stabilizing - with a dramatically improved outlook in place for the 3rd Quarter (see arrow pointing to May '09 results.)

• Of the 1,950 IT buyers we surveyed, 15% say their company's IT spending will increase for the 3rd Quarter - up 5-points and the first uptick in a ChangeWave IT survey in more than two years.

• While 24% still say their company's IT spending will decrease or there will be no spending at all, that's a major 17-pt improvement since the previous survey.

Note that the last time we had a net improvement of this magnitude was way back in November 2001 - a time period that would later prove to be the tail end of the previous U.S. recession.

But that doesn't prove we've got a classic leading indicator above. Much greater proof is needed. Here's what else we looked at:

By Paul Carton
June 22, 2009

ChangeWave's latest corporate survey shows a stabilizing of the U. S. economy, with second quarter sales experiencing the biggest improvement in more than four years.

While the survey of 2,970 corporate respondents shows current U.S. sales are still contracting, there's a dramatic lessening in the rate of decline. Coupled with broad improvements across a range of other key indicators - including capital spending, the job market and the third quarter sales pipeline - the picture points towards an end of the U.S. recession before the close of 2009.

Note that as we saw during the recovery from the 2001 business downturn, coming out of a recession can be quite a bumpy ride. So while the results of our May 20-June 2 survey are highly encouraging, we'll be keeping a close eye out for any signs of backsliding in the coming months.

U.S. Economy is Stabilizing

While 44% of respondents still project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for second quarter 2009 - that's a big eight point improvement over the previous quarter. Moreover, 13% say their company sales will come in Above Plan - a four point improvement.

As the following chart shows, these second quarter sales projections represent the biggest improvement in a ChangeWave survey in more than four years.

The U.S. labor market is also showing signs of improvement. One-in-ten respondents (10%) report there are More new hires in their company at this point in the second quarter vs. last quarter - up three points since the previous survey. Only 22% say there are Less new hires - down eight points from previously.

By Paul Carton
June 15, 2009

A couple of decades back it was the Baby Boomers driving new waves of consumer demand, but are they still at the forefront of today’s media and technology transformation?

Surprisingly so, according to the latest ChangeWave survey of 1,660 members of the Baby Boom generation. The benchmark survey of business professionals between the ages of 45 and 63, completed in early May, focused on TV viewing habits vs. home Internet usage.

The results point to a powerful shift occurring among Boomers away from traditional TV towards new types of online services and entertainment.  Importantly, this transformation is affecting lifelong habits.

In the first major finding, Boomers now spend more free time online (12.9 hrs per week on average) than they do watching traditional TV (11.8 hrs per week on average).



What’s more, by a five-to-one margin Boomers are watching less traditional television than they did a year ago. Among this group, 62% say it’s because they’re not as interested in what's on TV these days, and another 26% say they’re spending more time surfing the web.

By Paul Carton
June 8, 2009

Last quarter we saw a leveling off in the rate of decline for business IT spending. But ChangeWave’s latest survey shows U.S. corporate IT spending in the process of rapidly stabilizing – with a dramatically improved outlook now in place for the third quarter.

The ChangeWave survey was conducted May 11-20, and a total of 1,849 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated.

Dramatic Improvement. Twenty-four percent of respondents said their company’s IT spending will decrease, or there will be no spending at all for the third quarter, but that’s a major 17-point improvement since our previous survey in February.

Another 15% said their company's IT spending will increase – 5-points improved and, most importantly, the first recorded uptick in a ChangeWave survey in two and one-half years.



We also askedrespondents if their IT spending was on track thus far in the second quarter, and the results show smaller but unmistakable signs of improvement.

By Paul Carton
June 1, 2009

The signs of improvement reported in our April consumer survey have continued to gain momentum, according to ChangeWave’s latest survey of 2,729 consumers.

The May 5-11 survey shows that while consumer spending remains low by historical standards, we’ve witnessed the most sustained improvement over the past 60 days that we’ve seen in more than 3 years.

We note that coming out of a recession is usually far bumpier than going into one, so while it’s encouraging that the worst appears over it is premature to say that we’re entirely out of the woods yet.

One-in-five U.S. respondents (21%) now say they’ll spend more money over the next 90 days, a big five point jump since April. Another 47% still say they’ll spend less, but that’s eight points better than previously.



The 13-point net gain going forward is the most significant improvement in consumer spending in nearly three and a half years. Moreover, the spending outlook has improved across all income categories, even among lower income households (under $50,000 per year).

By Paul Carton
May 26, 2009

ChangeWave's Healthcare survey of 322 physicians points to a rise in doctor referrals for genetic testing going forward, along with a strong willingness of doctors to refer patients for specific tests like cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

Results show that despite the overall belief that genetic testing is important, doctors still harbor a degree of hesitation with respect to the issues surrounding the tests.  Many report being strong advocates of regulatory controls over the nascent genetic testing industry.  Importantly, only one-in-ten doctors say genetic testing has become an integral part of their practice.

Rising Referrals

Nearly a third of doctors surveyed (30%) now say they’ve recommended or referred patients for a genetic test to asses risk for a specific disease over the past 12 months – an increase of 5-pts since our previous July 2008 survey. Testing patients’ risk for cancer (34%) was the top reason cited by physicians.

The ChangeWave survey also shows increasing demand for genetic testing. Better than one-in-five doctors (21%) report they’re More Likely to recommend or refer patients for genetic testing over the next 12 months, while only 3% say they’re Less Likely



Genetic Testing for Specific Diseases

The vast majority of doctors who have received inquiries about genetic testing say it’s because of patient concern over Risk for Developing a Specific Disease (85%). Another 13% say it’s because of General Health Concerns.

The survey also focused on several specific medical conditions, including Alzheimer’s, asthma, cancer, diabetes, heart disease, multiple sclerosis, and Parkinson’s disease.

By Paul Carton
May 26, 2009

The U.S. cellular service provider market remains a two-horse race between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) – with the former leading in terms of future demand and the latter in terms of customer satisfaction and fewest dropped calls.

These and other key findings arose from a March ChangeWave survey of 4,292 consumers.

Future Share

When asked how likely they were to change service providers in the next 6 months, 13% of consumers said they were very or somewhat likely to switch.

Among that group, only 9% of current AT&T customers said they're likely to switch compared to 11% of Verizon customers – giving AT&T a slight edge in customer loyalty. But where do those consumers who are switching say they’re headed?

A full third (33%) say they’ll go with AT&T – a huge 6-pt jump from December to the highest level since we began asking this question back in 2005. Verizon (24%; up 2-pts), while still competitive, continues to lag behind.



Note that dating back to the period just before the original Apple (AAPL) iPhone rollout, AT&T has managed to stay in first place in terms of future demand.

A coincidence? Not likely.

By Paul Carton
May 18, 2009

After a two-year downward spiral, ChangeWave’s latest corporate software spending survey is picking up unmistakable signs of an improved spending environment going forward.

While overall spending is still contracting, the 90-day outlook points to a dramatic lessening in the rate of decline – a critically important indicator that suggests business software spending could be coming out of recession sooner than expected.

The ChangeWave survey of 1,775 respondents involved with software purchasing in their company was conducted April 16-27, 2009.

Improved Software Spending Going Forward

Better than one-in-ten software buyers (11%) say their company will spend more on software over the next 90 days – 2-pts better than our January survey. And while 26% still say their company will spend less – that’s a huge 13-pt improvement over previously.

There were other promising signs of improvement in terms of corporate capital budgets.

By Paul Carton
May 11, 2009

Back in February, ChangeWave surveys showed a leveling off in the rate of IT spending decline. But what's going on with consumers and their personal computers? Are PCs on track for recovery or does the market remain stuck in low gear?

According to our April survey of 3,231 consumers, we've picked up a jump in planned laptop spending going forward - and it's being led by escalating Netbook demand.

But what does this mean for PC manufacturers, and Apple in particular?

PC Outlook: Next 90 Days

A total of 8% of respondents plan to buy a laptop in the next 90 days - 2-pts higher than in our February survey and the first recorded uptick in 17 months. Note that planned spending on desktops (4%) remains flat.

These findings concur with our latest survey results on the overall consumer electronics market, which also shows signs of stabilizing - albeit at historically low levels.

But more importantly, the uptick in laptops is at least partially due to the fact that an already strong demand for Netbooks is continuing to escalate. Since we first reported higher consumer interest in the more affordable mini-laptops, overall Netbook demand has skyrocketed.

By Paul Carton
May 4, 2009

Where will President Obama's economic stimulus dollars flow in the race to upgrade America's infrastructure? Perhaps more importantly, which sectors and companies will reap the biggest rewards?

To find out, we surveyed 409 members of the ChangeWave Research Network who work in companies that are involved in infrastructure projects.

The March 12-17 survey focused primarily on the Transportation and Electricity/Smart Grid sectors - and the results provide an early roadmap on where infrastructure stimulus dollars are most likely to be spent and the firms that will win and lose as a result.

This is a benchmark survey of industry infrastructure trends - the first in a series of ChangeWave surveys tracking the impact of federal stimulus spending.

The Race for Federal Infrastructure Dollars

Industry respondents were asked which infrastructure areas they think will benefit most from the economic stimulus package over the next 12 months.

Transportation infrastructure (62%) was by far the biggest winner, followed by Alternative Energy (44%), Electricity/Smart Grid (29%) and Water infrastructure (11%).

Note that ChangeWave recently conducted surveys on the Alternative Energy Industry (Jan 2009) and Water Industry (Oct 2008), and these sectors were not a core focus of the current survey.

By Paul Carton
April 27, 2009

ChangeWave's latest survey points to a slight uptick in U.S. consumer spending going forward - the clearest signs of an improvement among consumers in nearly two years.

Although the April survey results do not signal a definitive end to the recession, they indicate that the long period of decline in consumer spending may finally be reaching a turning point.

While 55% of U.S. respondents still say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, that's a seven point improvement since March. Most importantly, 16% say they'll spend more money - three points better than previously and the biggest overall increase since May 2007.

Importantly, the spending outlook improved among all income categories, although lower income households (under $50,000 per year) remain by far the weakest group in terms of spending going forward.

The survey of 2,717 U.S. consumers, completed April 7, 2009, focused on spending patterns for the next 90 days.

Consumer Demand Steady for iPhone, BlackBerry - But What About the Palm Pre?

By Paul Carton
April 16, 2009

In recent years, ChangeWave consumer surveys have chronicled a seismic shift to smart phones, with Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) locked in a two-horse race while most of their competitors have been caught in a downward spiral.

But does the upcoming Palm Pre launch signal another thoroughbred entering the smart phone race?

Early consumer reaction to the Palm Pre launch was one of several issues looked at in a March 17-23 ChangeWave survey of 4,292 cell phone owners, which also focused on the consumer impact of Apple's just announced iPhone upgrades.

Smart Phone Demand - Next 90 Days

The overall shift to smart phones continues, although a slight dip is forecast for the spring season, as Apple and Research In Motion have no immediate product launches scheduled for the next 90 days.

After the huge launch of the iPhone 3G and the impressive successes of the new Blackberry models, 11.2% of respondents say they'll be buying a smart phone over the next 90 days, 1-pt less than in our December 2008 survey.

Despite this small decline, the 11.2% number is the third-highest percentage recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2005 - and the new product launches and upgrades set for the summer are likely to boost that number as we approach the third quarter.

RIM vs. Apple vs. Palm

Research in Motion's BlackBerry models (41%) continue to maintain RIM as the overall market share leader among consumers, while Apple (24%; up 1-pt) remains firmly in second place.

Of course, future share is what we're most interested in, and that's where we are seeing the first signs of an uptick for Palm.

Fiber-Optic Trumps the Cable and Satellite Providers

By Paul Carton
April 9, 2009

Not so long ago consumers were abandoning traditional over-the-air TV broadcasting for cable and satellite service providers. Times have changed.

The latest ChangeWave consumer survey on TV service provider trends shows the newest entrant - fiber optics - is having a radical impact on the marketplace. The survey of 2,874 U.S. and Canadian respondents was conducted March 4-11, 2009.

Cable Still Leads but Fiber-Optic Providers Have Momentum

We asked respondents which TV service provider they subscribe to. The results from our last two years of surveys show a definitive market transformation is occurring.

While cable continues to hold the lion's share of the market - 63% of respondents say they currently subscribe to a cable TV service - that's 3-pts less than last December and an 8-pt drop from two years ago. At the same time, satellite providers (26%) have held steady.

So where's the growth? It's fiber optic TV service providers - up 3-pts since December 2008 and a five-fold increase in the past two years.

What does this mean at the individual provider level?

Latest Survey Shows a Leveling Off in Rate of Spending Decline

April 2, 2009

ChangeWave's March survey of U.S. consumers points to a continued tough spending environment, with restaurants remaining one of the weakest spending areas. But in a hopeful sign, the rate of decline has leveled off compared to our previous survey.

During the weeks of Feb 17-23 and Mar 3-10, we surveyed consumers on their dining habits to determine - among other things - whether there are any dining categories and restaurant chains showing signs of improvement.

Continued Hard Times

After a 16-month downward spiral the rate of restaurant spending decline is leveling off. Half of respondents (50%) still say they'll spend less money at restaurants going forward; however, that's 2-pts better than the February measure.

Just 5% say they'll be spending more at restaurants - unchanged from our all-time low.

March 27, 2009

The anticipation surrounding Microsoft's new Windows 7 operating system seems to be swelling in direct proportion to the frustration of current Vista users.

But can the new software live up to its hype, or will it prove another Microsoft letdown? To find out ChangeWave surveyed 68 Windows 7 beta testers between February 9 and 17. Here's what we found:

Early Satisfaction Ratings

First, when beta testers were asked how satisfied they were with Windows 7 the results were encouraging - particularly compared to the early satisfaction readings for Vista.

Better than two-in-five respondents (44%) said their company was Very Satisfied with the new Windows 7 product. In comparison, back in a February 2007 ChangeWave survey soon after Vista's release, only 10% said they were Very Satisfied.

Next, we asked respondents to name their specific likes and dislikes for the Windows 7 OS.

By Paul Carton
March 17, 2009

ChangeWave's latest consumer spending survey shows a worsening in U.S. consumer sentiment and expectations.

Seven-in-ten (70%) consumers now believe the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days - 6-pts more than a month ago. Only 7% believe the economy will improve - a decline of 1-pt to the lowest level ever in a ChangeWave survey.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,710 U.S. consumers was conducted March 3-10, 2009, and there were other sentiment indicators that echoed these findings, including:

In terms of actual spending, the best that can be said about the March survey is that the rate of consumer spending going forward is similar to the rate seen in February. In other words, the month over month spending rate is essentially flat.

On the upside, 13% of U.S. respondents now say they'll spend more money over the next 90 days - which is 1-pt better than in February. However, 62% say they'll spend less money, 1-pt worse than previously.

By Paul Carton
March 11, 2009

Last quarter's accelerating U.S. economic freefall has extended right through 1st Quarter 2009 - and a new ChangeWave survey shows yet a further downturn in corporate sales projections and in customer willingness to spend.

Our latest corporate survey, however, also contains glints of hope, including a slight leveling off in the rate of contraction going forward.

But the bottom line is that the U.S. economy remains caught in the clutches of a recession far deeper and more painful than that of 2001 - including alarmingly grim hiring trends and a continued pullback in capital spending. The ChangeWave survey was completed March 3rd, 2009, and a total of 3,076 U.S. respondents participated.

Tailspin Continues in the 1st Quarter

One-in-two respondents (52%) now project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for 1st Quarter 2009 - 1-pt worse than the previous quarter. Only 9% say their company sales will come in Above Plan - a 2-pt decrease.

As the following chart shows, the 1st Quarter (Mar '09) corporate sales projections are the worst ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to the depths of the 2001 recession.

We also asked respondents to rate the current willingness of their existing customers to spend money on their company's products and services, and more than three-quarters (76%) say their customers have either a Yellow Light to spend (i.e., spending is downsized, though not completely stopped) or a Red Light (i.e., spending is virtually on hold).

Just 18% report that their existing customers have a Green Light to spend (i.e., spending is normal).

The U.S. labor market also remains in a dismal state. Only 7% say there are More new hires in their company at this point in the 1st Quarter vs. last quarter - a 1-pt decline since the previous survey. Another 30% say there are Less new hires - a tiny 1-pt improvement from previously, but overall the 2nd worst reading since we began asking this question five years ago.

By Paul Carton
March 4, 2009

The collapse in U.S. business spending we reported last quarter has extended right into the New Year - though ChangeWave's latest corporate IT purchasing survey does show a slight leveling off in the rate of decline for 1st half 2009 and a glint of hope for the 2nd half.

A total of 1,939 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated in the ChangeWave survey, conducted February 9-17, 2009.

Still Bad - But Not Quite As Awful As Last Quarter

Better than two-in-five respondents (41%) say their company's IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) for the 2nd Quarter - an extraordinarily high number, but nonetheless 4-pts improved over our November survey.

Only 10% say their IT spending will increase - unchanged from previously.

Thus while the decline in planned IT spending is the second worst on record for a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2001, it's not quite as bad as the huge nose-dive we recorded last quarter. Statistically speaking, we are witnessing a slight leveling off in the rate of decline.

We also asked respondents if their IT spending was on track thus far in the 1st Quarter, and here the results are virtually a mirror image of our previous survey.

Nearly four-in-ten respondents (38%) say they've spent "Less than Planned" so far in the 1st quarter, while just 7% have spent "More than Planned."

Regarding individual IT categories, Servers (Change in Net Difference Score = -3) has registered the biggest slowdown since the previous quarter. Networking (-2), PCs (-1), and Security (-1) also look weaker.

Even As Netbook Sales Remain Firm

By Paul Carton
February 24, 2009

While the technology is getting faster, consumer PC demand keeps getting slower and slower.

There's been yet another decline in PC buying, according to ChangeWave's latest survey of 3,115 consumers. The February 2-9, 2009 survey focused on PC purchasing trends, including the demand for low-end "Netbook" computers.

Tough Times for PCs

Going forward, planned PC buying remains at the lowest levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Only 4% of respondents say they'll buy a desktop in the next 90 days - 1-pt less than in our January 2009 survey. In addition, just 6% say they'll buy a laptop - unchanged from previously.

We also note that overall Consumer Electronics spending is at the lowest level since we began measuring consumer purchasing in 2002. Only 12% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days, compared to 43% who say they'll spend less - clear signs of further deterioration in this space.

Demand For Netbooks Remains Firm

Our previous survey showed low-cost, highly portable laptops with smaller screens - popularly known as Netbooks - have been one of the few beneficiaries of this tough spending environment. The latest survey results reinforce this finding.

Going forward, 18% of respondents say that the laptop they plan on buying in the next 90 days will be a Netbook, which is 4-pts higher than in January. The list of leading Netbook manufacturers includes Acer and ASUS.

By Paul Carton
February 18, 2009

The tiny signs of stabilization we picked up in our January consumer spending survey proved extremely short-lived.

ChangeWave's February national survey results point to yet another leg downward in U.S. consumer spending going forward. Consumer sentiment has also taken a big hit, with two-in-three respondents now believing the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,701 U.S. consumers was conducted February 2-9, 2009.

Grim Spending Outlook

While our January consumer survey contained intriguing signs of a leveling off in the rate of spending decline, the February results show a reversal and represent the worst spending outlook ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Better than three-in-five U.S. respondents (61%) say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 4-pts worse than our early January survey.

Just 12% say they'll spend more money - 1-pt worse than previously.

Low Oil Prices and Recession Hurt Demand – But Hope from Washington Boosts Future Expectations

February 10, 2009

Even as low oil prices and a severe recession have taken their toll on alternative energy demand, a green-oriented presidential administration has brightened the hopes for renewed growth in the sector - particularly for solar and wind power.

These are some of the key findings from ChangeWave's latest Alternative Energy Industry survey, conducted December 29, 2008 through January 5, 2009. A total of 210 respondents working in the industry participated.

Industry Trends - Past 12 Months

Industry respondents report the Solar sector (51%; unchanged) has experienced the most rapid economic growth over the past 12 months - similar to the findings of the August 2008 survey. Wind Power (43%) came in second; however, that number is 6-pts lower than previously.

The Hybrid/Electric Vehicle sector (23%; down 9-pts) continues to take a hit, with lower gas prices putting a significant damper on demand. Biomass (20%; up 3-pts) and Fuel Cells (10%; up 4-pts) bring up the rear, though each has shown some improvement since the August measure.

By Paul Carton
February 3, 2009

Everyone knows consumers have ratcheted down their spending, but how badly is the negative purchasing environment affecting consumer PC sales?

Very badly, according to our latest ChangeWave consumer survey. And despite the accolades greeting Apple's recent earnings announcement, the ChangeWave survey shows the California manufacturer will be especially hard hit this quarter by the continued economic downturn.

The January 5-12 ChangeWave survey of PC buying among 3,476 consumers also looked at another trend bedeviling Apple - the increased demand for low-end Netbook computers.

Tightening PC Market

The survey revealed a post-holiday consumer PC market that has turned significantly weaker. Just 6% of respondents say they plan on buying a laptop in the next 90 days - 2-pts lower than in our November 2008 survey. At the same time, 5% say they'll buy a desktop, down 1-pt from previously.

These numbers are both record lows for PC buying plans in a ChangeWave survey.

By Paul Carton
January 28, 2009

The latest ChangeWave survey on cellular service providers shows the battle between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) is raging on.

The December 9-15, 2008 survey asked 3,800 respondents to identify their current cellular service provider, and AT&T tops the list with 31% - up 1-pt from the previous survey in September. Verizon (30%) came in a very close second, also up 1% from previously.

Sprint Nextel (S) (10%; down 1-pt) and T-Mobile (10%; unchanged) are still far back at the rear of the pack.

In terms of customer satisfaction, however, the results are quite different. The battle isn't even close.

As the following chart shows, Verizon (49%) holds a commanding lead over AT&T (30%), in terms of the percentage of its customers who say they are very satisfied with their cellular service provider.

Once again, T-Mobile (27%) and Sprint Nextel (25%) bring up the rear.

By Paul Carton
January 14, 2009

ChangeWave's latest survey contains some intriguing signs that consumer spending may finally be stabilizing after a prolonged, horrendous slowdown.

For the first time in eight months we're seeing signs of a tiny spending uptick. Moreover, there's an improvement in consumer sentiment and expectations going forward.

But don't break out the champagne. The overall spending environment remains fiercely negative and this momentary improvement may well prove short-lived - similar to what happened after the tiny May 2008 uptick that occurred as a result of the stimulus tax rebate program.

The combination of a new year, a new presidential administration, and lower inflation are likely contributors to the stabilization seen in this latest ChangeWave survey of 2,798 U.S. consumers, conducted Jan 5 - 9, 2009. Here's a quick look at the good and the bad.

The Good

While overall spending still looks terrible, the 90-day outlook is not quite as horrible as it was in last month's survey (December 2008).

Better than half (57%) of U.S. respondents still say they'll spend less over the next 90 days than they did a year ago - but that's 3-pts better than in the December survey. Another 13% say they'll spend more - 2-pts better than previously.

By Paul Carton
January 13, 2009

It's been a rough ride lately for the U.S. economy, and nowhere has this been more evident than at your favorite restaurant.

According to ChangeWave's December consumer survey, it looks like more belt tightening went on last month when it comes to dining out. The survey of 1,308 consumers focused on dining habits and found a further weakening in restaurant spending.

More than half of respondents (51%) said they'll be spending less money at restaurants going forward - an all-time high in a ChangeWave survey. Only 7% said they'll be spending more, unchanged from November.

The year-over-year decline (Dec 2008 vs. Nov 2007) fell to an unprecedented 41-pts.

Moreover, among those dining out less often, nearly half (47%) say it's because they're "Saving More Money" - a full 25-pts higher than our September survey. At the same time, there has been a 10-pt increase in the percentage of consumers who say they're Eating More Meals at Home (48%).

But which types of restaurant chains are getting hardest hit? And are there any categories showing signs of improvement?

By Paul Carton
December 22, 2008

Research In Motion (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL) continue their smart phone battle for the hearts and minds of consumers, according to the latest ChangeWave survey. The survey shows Apple enjoying another good quarter in the aftermath of its 3G iPhone release.

But while RIM sales momentum has been sluggish in recent quarters, its new BlackBerry product launches have unleashed a jump in consumer planned buying that suggests a full-scale battle with Apple for market supremacy in 2009.

So are the new BlackBerry products strong enough to capitalize on the increased consumer interest?

The ChangeWave survey of 3,803 cell phone owners takes a close look at smart phone market trends, including consumer reaction to RIM's launch of the BlackBerry Storm and how it compares to the Apple iPhone. The December 9-15, 2008 survey was conducted just weeks after the Storm's initial release.

Smart Phone Market Demand

The overall growth rate for the smart phone market has contracted since our previous survey, but it's still positive despite the recessionary climate. A total of 12.2% of respondents plan on buying a smart phone over the next 90 days, 0.3% more than previously

Current Market Share: Apple vs. RIM vs. Palm. While RIM (41%) is still the consumer market share leader, it has fallen 1-pt since our previous survey in September to its lowest percentage of the last 12 months.

At the same time, Apple (23%; up 6-pts) has witnessed explosive growth - up 6-pts just since September. Importantly, its overall market share has more than doubled in the past six months - a direct result of the July release of the 3G iPhone.

Taken together, Apple and RIM now control two-thirds of the smart phone market, as smaller/weaker players such as Palm (9%) have proven unable to compete.

By Paul Carton
December 11, 2008

In the aftermath of the massive consumer spending breakdown seen in our November consumer survey, the December survey does show the rate of decline stabilizing. Nonetheless, the 90-day outlook remains the worst on record in a ChangeWave survey.

Signs of the consumer retreat include record numbers saying they're spending less because they're trying to save more money and to reduce debt.

Consumer sentiment has also taken a direct hit since November, with two-in-three respondents now believing the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days - 9-pts more than a month ago.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,715 U.S. consumers was conducted December 2 - 9, 2008.

Grim Spending Outlook

Three-in-five (60%) U.S. respondents say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 1-pt worse than our previous survey in November 2008. Just 11% say they'll spend more money - 1-pt better than previously.

Thus after four consecutive surveys of progressively deeper spending contractions, the December results at last show a leveling off in the rate of decline. Still, the 90-day outlook remains astonishingly grim.

By Paul Carton
December 5, 2008

Most everyone knows it's a jungle out there for the U.S. economy, but how does this recession measure up to the last one we lived through in 2001?

According to ChangeWave's latest corporate survey - conducted November 20th through December 1st - the U.S. economy is caught in the clutches of a recession far deeper and more painful than anything seen back in 2001.

The ChangeWave survey of 3,029 U.S. respondents found alarmingly low 4th Quarter sales projections, abysmal visibility going forward, a deteriorating job market and an unprecedented pullback in capital spending - and that's just for starters. Here's the snapshot:

4th Quarter Economic Freefall

A whopping one-in-two respondents (51%) project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for 4th Quarter 2008 - 16-pts worse than the previous quarter. Only 11% say their company sales will come in Above Plan - a 7-pt decrease from previously.

As the following chart shows, these corporate sales projections are the worst ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to the depths of the 2001 recession

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By Paul Carton
November 24, 2008

It's hard to hide from the downbeat headlines these days - which pretty much sums up what we've been finding in the PC sector.

But there are small glimmers of hope. ChangeWave's latest survey on consumer PC buying shows weaker demand for the holidays - yet there are also positive signs for Apple (AAPL), and most surprisingly, for Dell (DELL).

The October 23 - November 3, 2008 ChangeWave survey of 3,699 consumers focused on personal computer demand for the next 90 days.

First, here's the bad news:

PC Market Ain't What It Used To Be

Just one year ago, 11% of respondents planned to buy a laptop in the next 90 days, compared to only 8% in the latest survey. A similar drop has occurred for desktops, with 8% planned buyers last November dropping to just 6% currently.

The PC slowdown is occurring in tandem with the weakest holiday electronics spending levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey. Typically, we see a big pop in electronics spending for the holidays - but not this year.

Only 19% of respondents say they'll spend more on consumer electronics over the next 90 days compared to 43% who say less - a net 40-pts worse than one year ago.

By Paul Carton
November 20, 2008

ChangeWave's latest corporate IT purchasing survey shows an accelerating collapse in U.S. business spending that has reached historic proportions - with record pullbacks occurring both in the current 4th Quarter and going forward.

In one of the survey's few upbeat findings, the corporate smart phone market continues to show growth - with Research in Motion (RIM) maintaining its huge lead, but Apple (AAPL) continuing to make inroads in small to medium-sized businesses.

A total of 1,926 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated in the ChangeWave survey, conducted November 6-12, 2008.


U.S. Corporate IT Spending Breakdown

Simply put, the IT spending projections for 1st Quarter 2009 are abysmal - the worst ever for a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2001. An unprecedented 45% of respondents say their company's IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) in the 1st Quarter - 16-pts worse than our previous survey.

Only 10% say spending will increase - a 3-pt drop from previously.

By Paul Carton
November 18, 2008

Will the economic recession lead to a major worldwide decline in the water project spending worldwide?

Quite possibly, according to the latest ChangeWave survey on water industry trends, which shows tough financial times are causing a dramatic slowdown in planned water project expenditures.

Just one-in-three water industry respondents (33%) say overall spending will increase during the next year - less than half the percentage we saw in our February 2008 survey. Another 28% say spending will decrease - a 7-fold jump from previously.

The ChangeWave survey, conducted October 16 - 22, 2008, was composed of 116 respondents who work for companies in the water industry.

The one silver lining in the results is that even though the water spending growth rate is projected to plummet, these respondents still project positive growth - albeit by a very slight margin.

Dismal 90-Day Outlook Hits All Major Spending Categories

By Paul Carton
November 12, 2008

If you think October was bad for U.S. retailers, wait till you see what's in store for November.

ChangeWave's latest consumer spending survey shows yet another giant downturn in U.S. consumer spending going forward. And relatively speaking, it's far more pronounced than the October downturn.

The survey of 2,763 U.S. consumers, completed November 3rd, focused on spending patterns for the next 90 days, including the holiday season. Here's what we found:

Grim Consumer Spending Outlook

Nearly three-in-five (59%) respondents now say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 7-pts worse than previously. Only one-in-ten (10%) say they'll spend more - 8-pts worse than previously.

"These findings strongly support the thesis that fourth-quarter earnings will be far more painful than currently expected," said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing.

But why are consumers spending less? Saving More Money (33%; up 7-pts) and Reducing Debt (31%; up 2-pts) were cited as the dominant reasons. Reduced Income (33%; up 7-pts) has also shot up as a main reason.

AT&T holds lead in new customers; Verizon still tops in satisfaction

By Paul Carton
November 12, 2008

Can you hear me now?

Apparently yes - if you are one of the two leading cellular service providers.

In September, we conducted a consumer survey on cellular service provider trends, and took a closer look at what is now clearly a two-horse race for leadership of the industry between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ).

A total of 2,883 members of the ChangeWave Research Network participated.

In the hotly contested battle for current market share among cell phone owners, AT&T (30%; unchanged) holds a slight market share lead over Verizon (29%; unchanged).

Verizon, however, is still the clear favorite in terms of customer satisfaction.

Currently, 43% say they are Very Satisfied with Verizon's service. AT&T (29%) is a distant second, followed by T-Mobile (24%) and Sprint/Nextel (S; 20%).

By Paul Carton

November 4, 2008

A greater than expected pullback is occurring in software spending.

That's according to ChangeWave's latest corporate software survey, which points to a striking deterioration in software spending plans for the next 90 days. Moreover, in a sharp reminder of the severity of the current U.S. recession, the purchasing decline cuts across all software categories.

The ChangeWave survey was conducted October 6-15, 2008, and a total of 1,841 respondents involved with their company's software spending participated.

Software Industry Faces Hard Times Ahead

In the most telling finding of the survey, 40% of corporate software purchasers now say their company will spend less on software over the next 90 days - a whopping 15-points worse than the previous ChangeWave survey in July.

Only 8% say they'll spend more - 4-pts worse than previously.

By Paul Carton

October 28, 2008

Steve Jobs must be keeping a close eye on our ChangeWave survey findings.

In a highly unusual move, he participated in Apple earnings phone call last week to ensure investors that despite the economic slowdown there's no reason to worry. And he did so even though Apple's outlook going forward came in well below the Street's expectations - exactly as our September ChangeWave survey had predicted.

In the conference call, CFO Peter Oppenheimer estimated Apple's sales would come in between $9-10 billion for the December quarter - well under the $10.7 billion that had been anticipated. He also said earnings per share would fall between $1.06 and $1.35 - also far less than the Street's $1.67 consensus estimate.

In our September PC spending survey of 4,262 consumers, we found Apple's real problem wasn't Mac sales over the previous 90 days - sales looked good. The problem was the outlook for Macs going forward.

By Paul Carton

October 21, 2008

"Subdue your appetites, my dears, and you've conquered human nature."
--Charles Dickens

If Dickens were alive, he'd probably say it's been the "worst of times" lately for the economy at large. Nowhere is this more evident than in the restaurant industry.

Our latest ChangeWave Restaurant Spending surveys show consumers continuing to cut back on their restaurant expenditures. But in these extraordinarily tough times, which types of restaurant chains are being hardest hit? And are there any categories showing signs of improvement?

To find out, we surveyed consumers on their dining habits during the weeks of September 3-9 (n = 1,005) and September 16-25 (n = 4,067).

Next 90 Days - Restaurant Spending Cutbacks Continue

Spending on restaurants has fallen steeply (a net 6-pts) since our previous survey in August. More than four-in-ten respondents (44%) now tell us they'll be spending less on restaurants over the next 90 days. Only 6% say they'll be spending more.

By Paul Carton

October 7, 2008

The financial events of the past few weeks have led to a reflexive recoiling on the part of U.S. consumers.

The latest ChangeWave consumer survey - conducted in late September - shows another major leg downward for U.S. consumer spending. At the same time, confidence in the economy has dropped to exceptionally low levels.

Hunkering Down

Despite an already severe 15 month contraction, U.S. consumer spending is suddenly veering southwards - with more than half of our 4,067 survey respondents (52%) now saying they'll spend less money over the next 90 days. That's down 8-pts just since August.

By Paul Carton

October 7, 2008

Apple (AAPL) suddenly finds itself in a vulnerable position, just as the latest ChangeWave consumer survey shows another big leg downward for the beleaguered U.S. consumer.

ChangeWave's September 16-26 survey of 4,262 consumers focused on PC spending - and it shows Apple's real problem isn't Mac sales for the previous 90 days (sales are looking good), it's their outlook for Macs going forward.

Past 90 Days - A Good Quarter For Mac Sales

Among respondents who bought a computer over the past 90 days, 23% say they bought an Apple laptop and 17% a desktop - down 1-pt and 2-pts respectively from the August ChangeWave survey.

But while the latest Mac results are down slightly, they're still quite close to the highs reached in both our July and August surveys - when the Mac halo effect caused by the release of the 3G iPhone was still in effect.

When you look at the July, August and September surveys in combination, the results say that Apple should meet its Mac sales numbers for the July 1 - September 30th quarter.

However, the outlook for the next 90 days shows a much, much tougher environment going forward.

By Paul Carton

September 23, 2008

Corporate PC purchasing continues to weaken, according to the latest ChangeWave survey, and will remain sluggish for the remainder of 2008.

That's the verdict of our August 11-21 corporate buying survey of 1,947 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization. The survey focused on PC purchasing plans among businesses for the 4th Quarter. Here's what we found:

Purchasing Slowdown

For the third-consecutive quarter, we're seeing a drop in corporate PC buying going forward. The following chart shows the downtrend in both laptop and desktop planned purchases.

Doctors Report a Slowdown in Medical Spending

The tentacles of the economic slowdown are spreading.

According to ChangeWave's latest healthcare survey, the medical industry is now seeing a deceleration in patient spending. The survey of 260 doctors, conducted August 21-26, 2008, shows patients are succumbing to tougher times and cutting corners in terms of health spending.

But just how frugal are patients becoming? To get a better understanding, we asked doctors if they've noticed any change in the frequency of patient visits over the past year. Better than one-in-five (22%) said their patients have been visiting "Less Frequently," compared to just 18% who said "More Frequently."

A perfect storm has hit the U.S. economy this quarter - and the odds are high that it still has a considerable way to go.

Our latest ChangeWave corporate survey shows the economy locked in an accelerating downward spiral, led by sharply lower 3rd Quarter sales projections, reduced visibility, a worsening job market and a further plunge in business capital spending.

Importantly, the temporary improvement that resulted from the April/May infusion of $150 billion in U.S. economic stimulus rebates has evaporated.

But even more tellingly, our survey of 3,058 corporate respondents shows a serious worsening occurring in the U.S. credit crisis.

Let's take a quick look at why the U.S. downward spiral still has a considerable way to go.

3rd Quarter Sales - Worst in Years

Only 18% of respondents project that their company sales will come in Above Plan for 3rd Quarter 2008 - a 4-pt decrease from the previous quarter. Another 35% report their company sales will come in Below Plan - 5-pts worse than previously.

Just how striking a downturn it is can be seen in the following chart, which shows the last four years of corporate surveys. Simply put, the percentage of companies projecting Below Plan sales (35%) is nearly double the percentage projecting Above Plan sales (18%).

Note that you have to go all the way back to the depths of the 2001-2002 recession to find such dismal results in a ChangeWave survey.

ChangeWave's latest survey of the alternative energy industry shows Solar has experienced the most rapid economic growth over the past 12 months - but Wind Power is also surging and has the most momentum going forward.

The survey - which focused on industry trends and opportunities - was completed August 4, 2008, and a total of 196 respondents working in alternative energy sectors participated.

Solar Is Up

The solar sector (51%; up 2-pts) has come on strong over the past 12 months according to industry respondents - echoing the findings of our December 2007 survey. However, so has Wind Power (49%; up 14-pts).

But Macs Set to Hit New All-time High

The latest ChangeWave consumer survey points to still further declines in consumer spending going forward despite a slight improvement in consumer confidence. But how is the decline in spending affecting key sectors like consumer electronics and PCs?

To find out we looked at consumer electronics spending for the next 90 days - with a special focus on planned PC purchases - along with the stores consumers plan to shop at. The survey was conducted Aug 4-12, 2008, and 4,416 respondents participated.

Consumer Electronics Spending - Still Down. Going forward, planned consumer electronics spending is at near-record lows for a ChangeWave survey. Just 15% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days compared to 34% who say they'll spend less. The net difference between these numbers (-19-pts) is 13-pts lower than at the same time a year ago (Aug 2007).

But Apple Boosts iPhone Share Among Businesses

The downturn in the U.S. economy is far from over. ChangeWave's latest IT purchasing survey shows an even greater pullback occurring in corporate spending - both for the current quarter so far and for the next 90 days going forward.

At the same time, the Apple iPhone is beginning to gain traction in the corporate marketplace even as RIM maintains a big market share lead.

The survey of 1,947 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization was conducted August 11-21.

First, we asked respondents if their 3rd Quarter IT spending was on track to date, and the results were the worst we've seen in a ChangeWave survey.

New survey looks at how consumers are coping in these inflationary times

Back in July, a ChangeWave survey of 4,525 consumers pointed to yet another clear downturn in U.S. consumer spending - despite the injection of $150 billion in tax rebates to stimulate the economy.

In that July survey, we focused on the key reasons why consumers are spending less. As the following chart shows, the chief culprits are Inflation (56%; up 4-pts) and Higher Energy Costs (56%; up 7-pts).

Restaurants Still Feeling the Pinch as Economic Slowdown Continues

Since November 2007, our ChangeWave consumer surveys have tracked a continuing slowdown in U.S. restaurant spending. To find out if the outlook for restaurants is showing any signs of improvement, we surveyed Alliance members on their dining habits during the weeks of June 25-July 2 (n = 4,525) and July 7-14 (n = 1,276).

Here's what we found:

Apple and RIM's Smart Phone Arms Race Escalates

Two weeks before the new Apple 3G iPhone was released, a ChangeWave consumer survey showed it was likely to have a tsunami-like impact on the smart phone market. We all know what happened next - an extraordinarily successful 1 million units sold in the first weekend.

But what does that mean for current market share leader Research In Motion (RIMM)?

First, our survey showed the 3G iPhone had catapulted Apple (AAPL) into the lead in terms of planned consumer smart phone purchases for the next 90 days. But remember that RIM and its BlackBerry have a gigantic lead in the corporate smart phone market. Plus, RIM (42%; unchanged) is also the leader among current owners in the consumer market.

RIM Dominates Corporate Smart Phone Market

July 29, 2008

Research in Motion (RIMM) has been the dominant manufacturer in ChangeWave corporate smart phone surveys dating back to February 2007. At that time, we reported: "Among respondents whose companies currently provide Smart Phones, RIM (61%) remains the clear industry leader. Thirty-four percent (34%) of their users report their company is Very Satisfied with their Blackberries - with an 89% Satisfaction Rating overall."

Subsequent ChangeWave smart phone surveys continued to track RIM's momentum.

Below is a comparison of our ChangeWave RIM survey data from February 2007 through June 2008 with actual RIM revenue as reported by the company itself.

Transformation in Retail Market Gains Momentum

The May consumer spending uptick proved extremely short-lived. So much for that.

Despite the major infusion of $150 billion in economic stimulus rebates, consumers are once again pulling back. ChangeWave's latest consumer survey results point to yet another downtick in U.S. consumer spending going forward.

The survey of 4,525 consumers, completed July 2nd, focused on spending patterns for the next 90 days. And as the following chart shows, the new pullback in consumer spending reverses the slight improvement found in our previous survey.

Better than two-in-five U.S. respondents (43%) now say they'll spend less over the next 90 days - 3-pts worse than in May 2008. Another 26% say they'll spend more - 2-pts worse than previously.

So why are consumers spending less?

ChangeWave has been tracking the explosive market share growth of Apple (AAPL) Macs since well before the company's Intel chip deal announcement back in June 2005. Over this time, our research has consistently shown powerful momentum for both Mac desktops and Mac laptops - well in advance of traditional research channels.

As an example, we compared our ChangeWave Apple Mac survey data from 2006 - 2008 to actual Apple Mac unit sales as reported by the company itself.

The following chart shows the 'Percentage of Planned Buyers Intending to Buy Macs Over the Next 90 Days in our ChangeWave surveys' (blue line) vs. 'Actual Apple Mac Unit Sales' (green line).

As you can see, our ChangeWave survey data has been a wonderful early indicator of actual Mac sales - which represent the core of Apple's business. This is a clear example of how our ChangeWave surveys give you an information edge - and shows how ChangeWave accurately predicts future trends before the rest of the Street catches on.

Importantly, here's a look at the change in Apple's stock price over the same 2006 -2008 time period:

But RIM's almost ready to counter

It's been just over a year since the iPhone was released, and Apple (AAPL) is upping the ante in the smart phone wars.

We're talking about the release of the new 3G version of the iPhone.

Our latest ChangeWave survey of 3,567 consumers - conducted in the aftermath of Apple's June 9th announcement on the release of its 3G model - shows the next generation iPhone having a tsunami-like impact on the smart phone market.

But hold on...

Market leader Research-In-Motion (RIMM) - maker of the ubiquitous BlackBerry - hasn't taken this latest salvo lying down. The company has up to three new releases on the horizon that it expects will provide highly attractive alternatives to the 3G iPhone.

The Coming Apple Tsunami

We asked consumers who currently own a smart phone or who plan to buy one in the next 90 days to tell us the manufacturer.

RIM (42%; unchanged) holds steady as the consumer smart phone market leader among current smart phone owners, even as second place Palm (14%) has sunk to a record low.

But the biggest mover here is the Apple iPhone (11%; up 2-pts) - which continues to make major inroads in the consumer marketplace. Having gained market share for the fourth-consecutive survey, it is now close to wrestling the number two spot away from Palm.

To stay up-to-date on ChangeWave's future smart phone survey findings, simply sign up for our free newsletter.

The core of Apple (AAPL) has always been Mac computers. And according to two new ChangeWave surveys, Apple's computer business is holding strong even in the midst of a sluggish U.S. PC market.

But sluggish it is. ChangeWave's May consumer survey (n = 4,403 respondents) showed weak personal demand for PCs over the next 90 days, and our May corporate survey (n = 2,049 IT buyers) also pointed to weak PC demand over the next 90 days.

A Resilient Apple

Despite the slower spending environment, Apple remains resilient.

In terms of laptop planned purchases for the next 90 days, Apple's consumer market share is holding steady at 31% - unchanged from the previous survey and still at near-record levels. Planned desktop purchases (27%) are down just 2-pts from the all-time high recorded in January 2008.

Apple is also bucking the trend in the corporate PC market. Plans for next quarter Mac purchases are up to a record high for Apple laptops (8%; up 1-pt), and have equaled the record high for Apple desktops (6%).

In another positive, the internal demand for Macs among corporate employees (18%) appears much higher than the current Mac user base (5%), according to the estimates of our 2,049 IT buyers - which points to continued growth opportunities for Apple in the corporate market.

To stay up-to-date on ChangeWave's future PC survey findings, simply sign up for our free newsletter.

The sharp downturn that has pummeled the U.S. economy for virtually all of 2008 may be coming to an end, according to our latest corporate survey results. The new ChangeWave survey shows a slight improvement in 2nd Quarter corporate sales and a stable pipeline going forward.

Yet even as the economy begins to stabilize, the positives are tempered by a series of highly formidable negatives - including a huge increase in inflationary pressures, a worsening labor market, negative capital spending growth, and a continuing credit crunch for American businesses. A total of 3,152 U.S. respondents participated in the May 27-June 5th survey.

Signs of Stability

Better than one-in-five (22%) respondents now project that their company sales will come in Above Plan for the 2nd Quarter - 2-pts more than in the previous quarter. Another 30% say their company sales will come in Below Plan - unchanged from previously.

The current uptick in quarterly sales is a small but measurable improvement over the previous quarter. Importantly, it's the first upturn in this metric since June 2007.

But while the latest results are not as bad as last quarter's survey, before you break open the champagne check out how different things are from a year ago. The current Below Plan sales percentage remains way higher than the Above Plan sales percentage - almost an exact reversal from a year earlier.

To stay up-to-date on ChangeWave's future corporate survey findings, simply sign up for our free newsletter.

June 17, 2008

"Sears Posts Unexpected Loss," blared the instant headline after Sears Holdings (SHLD) most recent earnings announcement.

But the results weren't 'unexpected' here at ChangeWave, where we've been picking up dismal results for Sears dating back to our November 2007 Consumer Holiday Spending survey.

"Sears and Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are going to have the weakest holiday season" of the retailers we surveyed, we said at the time.

During 2008, Sears has continued reeling in each of our subsequent ChangeWave consumer surveys. Here's what's happened to its stock price during this time period: (the red arrows represent each our last five consumer surveys)

In our most recent consumer survey (May 2008), we again asked consumers about their spending patterns for the next 90 days. As you can see below, Sears has now fallen into last place, with just 4% of consumers saying they plan to spend More money at the retailer and 13% Less (Net Score = -9).

Yet even as Sears has plummeted, Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST) have remained two of the biggest stars in ChangeWave's consumer surveys during 2008. And going forward the two discount retailers continue to show tremendous strength, as sharply lower spending and higher inflation - coupled with deteriorating housing values - have conspired to produce a transformation in retail shopping.

Based on our ChangeWave survey results, Wal-Mart and Costco will continue to outperform this summer. That's bad news for Sears, which has proved unable to take a page from Costco or Wal-Mart's play book.

Expect more bearish news for Sears in the months ahead.

June 10, 2008

Sprint (S) recently reported a worse than expected loss of a half-billion dollars. To top it off, they've lost 1 million customers since the end of 2007.

Here at ChangeWave, our surveys have been tracking Sprint's long, steady decline for almost two years. Looking at our March 2008 ChangeWave survey of 3,597 consumers, only 11% said they currently use Sprint as their provider - a number which pales in comparison to Verizon (VZ; 31%) and AT&T (T; 28%).

There's other bad news for Sprint: our findings show Sprint customers to be the least satisfied of all of the major providers.

To make matters worse, when we asked Sprint customers how likely they were to change service providers in the next 6 months, a relatively high percentage (21%) said they're Likely to switch - compared to just 10% of Verizon customers and 11% for AT&T's.

Moreover when people do change cellular service providers, very few are switching to Sprint (3%). That said, the number did tick up a point in our last survey.

Sprint's stock price has dropped precipitously over the past two years in tandem with their poor performance in our surveys, although they've recently gained back some ground.

Might their "Simply Everything" ads or their WiMax deal with Clearwire be making investors more optimistic?

Perhaps, but our survey results show few signs of a turnaround at this point.

Defying an otherwise weak IT spending environment, Research In Motion (RIMM) is continuing to blow away the competition -- expanding on its already vast share of the corporate smart phone market.

Corporate IT spending is far less robust elsewhere, however. After a long and unsettling decline there are signs the spending slowdown may be stabilizing.

First, the good news from ChangeWave's May survey of 2,049 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization -- it's all about smart phones.

Research In Motion Destroys the Competition

In extraordinarily upbeat results for Research in Motion (76%; up 3-pts), the Canadian BlackBerry maker is expanding its already vast lead in the corporate smart phone market -- even as number two Palm (PALM; 17% - down 1-pt) continues its long term decline.

Moreover, when we look at future planned purchases for the 3rd Quarter, we see just how RIM absolutely dominates the overall corporate market. An astonishing 82% of respondents whose company plans to buy smart phones in the 3rd Quarter will buy BlackBerries -- a 5-pt jump since February.

The Apple iPhone (AAPL; 13%) now ranks second in terms of planned corporate purchases, up 2-pts from previously -- while Palm continues to languish with a miniscule 8% of future purchases.

Meanwhile, despite RIM's upbeat results in the smart phone market, overall corporate IT spending remains anemic and there are very few signs of an uptick going forward -- pointing to continued economic weakness for the 2nd half of the year.

Spending Ticks Up - But Spiraling Inflation Fears Are Transforming U.S. Shoppers

May 27, 2008

Since February, our ChangeWave consumer spending trends surveys have shown tremendous strength for Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST) - and the current findings are no exception.

Our latest survey of 4,403 respondents continues to track a powerful consumer movement towards the discount retailers and wholesale clubs -- even though overall consumer spending is rising for the first time in nearly a year.

The May 6-14 ChangeWave survey focused on spending patterns for the next 90 days - and Costco (+9) and Wal-Mart (+6) once again led all other retail outlets in terms of future spending growth.

This is the third consecutive ChangeWave survey since February that has uncovered strong results for Costco and Wal-Mart, highlighting a continued large-scale movement towards discount retailers that's being driven by high inflation and -- until recently -- a slower spending environment.

But here's the kicker. The retail shopping transformation we're seeing doesn't appear to be a short-term phenomenon. Rather, it has the all trappings of a consumer revolution - a ChangeQuake, if you will - that's continuing to pick up steam.

Case in point -- spending has finally begun to improve, but consumers are continuing to shun the mall retailers for the discount chains and wholesale shopping clubs.

Just as importantly, while some of the news in our survey is surprisingly good -- much of it is still bad and even downright ugly.

May 20, 2008

All year, Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST) have remained two shining bright spots in an otherwise beleaguered retail industry.

Wal-Mart recently reported better than expected 1st Quarter results - with profits rising nearly 7%. They also surprised analysts with a 3.2% rise in same-store sales for April thanks to strong performances from their apparel, grocery, health and entertainment lines.

Similarly, Costco reported an 8% rise in April same-store sales - well ahead of a 6.1% consensus estimate.

But Virtualization Shows an Uptick

May 13, 2008

When the going gets tough, the tough get going, according to the old axiom. But that's not the case with U.S. corporate software spending, which continues to trend downward.

An April 8-15 ChangeWave corporate spending trends survey shows a deterioration in 2nd Quarter software purchases with little relief in sight. But there's good news on the Virtualization front - with strikingly upbeat findings for VMware (VMW) and good indications of momentum for Citrix (CTXS).

A total of 1,956 respondents involved with software spending in their company participated in the survey.

How Tough Is Tough?

First, the bad news. A total of one-in-four respondents (25%) say their company will spend less for software over the next 90 days - 3-pts worse than our previous survey in January.

A miniscule 12% say their company will spend more - down 4-pts from previously.

What's behind the continued pullback? A total of 13% cite "a general slowdown in business conditions and capital budgets" as responsible for curtailing their company's software spending - 4-pts higher than in January and double the percentage of six months ago.

By Paul Carton
April 29, 2008

ChangeWave's recent Smart Phone Wars report showed a rapidly evolving two-horse race between the Apple (AAPL) iPhone and Research In Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry - with second tier players like Palm (PALM) and a host of others being shoved to the sidelines.

To follow-up, we took a closer look at the features users love and hate about their iPhones and BlackBerrys as part of our March 2008 survey of 864 smart phone owners.

If you recall, our previous report showed consumer satisfaction levels were sky high for the two smart phone frontrunners - with Apple boasting a 79% Very Satisfied rating for its iPhone models and RIM garnering a highly respectable 54% rating for the BlackBerry.

But what is it about these two brands that have consumers so very satisfied?

First, we asked RIM BlackBerry owners. By an overwhelming margin they told us the feature they liked most is the BlackBerry's exceptional access to email (56%).

No other feature comes even close in terms of popularity. As respondent MBR29407 explains, "The email integration of the BlackBerry 8800 is probably its single best feature, but I am constantly amazed at the quality of the phone itself." NEW06507 adds "I like the seamless way my BlackBerry works with corporate email, and the way you can call a number from within an email by highlighting it."

By Paul Carton
April 22, 2008

Many of us old enough to recall the 1970s TV show "The Six Million Dollar Man," know it was about a guy severely injured in a plane crash who was subsequently "rebuilt" in a high-tech, clandestine medical procedure costing six million dollars.

In the show, the main character's right arm, left eye and both legs were replaced by "bionic" body parts that enhanced his strength, speed and vision far beyond that of mortal humans.

ChangeWave's February survey of 148 doctors involved with "bionic" devices, looked at current and future demand trend for joint replacements, cardiac implants and other types of body repair and correction medical products.

"Bionic" Boomers

Today, when a limb or organ no longer functions as it should, one increasingly popular option is to replace it with a "bionic" device.

We asked our panel of doctors which types of devices will experience the largest growth in demand over the next 12 months. Little wonder, with the aging of the baby boomers, that one-in-two (50%) believe that it's Joint Repair/ Replacement devices.

"I'm old enough to remember the 1970s TV show The Six Million Dollar Man," said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave and editor of ChangeWave Investing. "And while we aren't quite there yet in terms of bionic technology, the fact that many aging baby boomers are looking for knee and hip replacements translates into big gains not only for the technology in general, but also for the companies specializing in this sector."

ChangeWave Survey Shows Major Corporate Shift to Energy Alternatives

By Paul Carton
April 15, 2008

There's a new standing order in corporate America and it goes almost exactly like this:

Be much more efficient in your energy usage.

A sea change is occurring in the way U.S. businesses view energy consumption, according to a March 24-28 ChangeWave survey of 1,400 respondents knowledgeable about their company's energy spending.

Nearly three-in-five respondents (57%) say their company is concerned about reducing energy usage, and these heightened concerns are leading to a transformational shift in corporate energy consumption - with an extraordinary 26% of respondents saying their company has used Less energy than normal during the past six months.

In comparison, only 16% of respondents say they've used More energy over this time period.

In a related finding, nearly one-in-four respondents (23%) report their company's spending on energy efficient products and technologies will Increase over the next six months - three-times the percentage that see a Decrease (8%).

By Paul Carton
April 14, 2008

The discounters are back in vogue as inflation rears its ugly head.

That's the verdict from ChangeWave's latest consumer survey, which shows a large-scale movement to discount retailers driven by skyrocketing inflation and an overall spending environment that continues to slow.

The ChangeWave survey of 4,735 consumers, completed April 7th, looked at spending for the next 90 days.

In a clear sign the economic downturn isn't over yet, this is the third-consecutive ChangeWave survey in 2008 showing a recession in consumer spending. However, the current survey does contain one small glimmer of hope - the actual rate of spending decline appears less severe than in either of the previous two surveys.

Better than two-in-five U.S. respondents (42%) say they'll spend less over the next 90 days than they did a year ago - 3-pts worse than our February 2008 survey. Another quarter (25%) say they'll spend more - unchanged from previously.

Going forward, however, the most disconcerting finding isn't just tighter spending; it's the huge and growing toll that inflation is having on consumers.

By Paul Carton
April 8, 2008

The world is worried about water - and investors are worried about water companies.

Midst mounting concerns over the scarcity and quality of the world's water supply, a recent ChangeWave survey of industry professionals found increased water project spending for 2008 - but not at the extraordinary levels of recent years. And troubles may lie ahead.

The February survey asked 147 respondents working in the water industry about project spending over the next 12 months, and two-thirds (67%) say they think spending will increase. But that's a 14-pt decline since our previous survey in June 2007.

Despite the decline these results are still relatively upbeat. But according to the survey there is a cloud looming over the water industry that could drive down the numbers - and its epicenter is in the U.S.

By Paul Carton
April 1, 2008

The release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone rocked the cellular industry last year, and some analysts are now asking if the pending release of Google's (GOOG) Android cellular phone operating system may have a similar impact.

The answer: Not likely.

According to a March 17-24 ChangeWave survey of 3,597 consumers, the smart phone industry continues to transform into a two-horse race between Research In Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry and Apple's iPhone.

While RIM currently dominates smart phone sales among consumers, the Apple iPhone has had tremendous success and continues showing momentum in this market. Meanwhile, the longstanding woes of Palm (PALM) and its Treo are accelerating.

RIM's On Top, But Apple Is Growing

RIM (42%; down 1-pt) maintains its towering lead in smart phone market share, even as number two Palm (16%; down 2-pts) is maintaining its two year losing streak. Palm has now lost market share in seven-consecutive ChangeWave surveys dating back to October 2006.

Now within striking distance of Palm, the Apple iPhone (9%) continues to exhibit strong growth in the smart phone market - jumping 3-points since our previous survey in January.

Latest ChangeWave Surveys Show Slowdown in Personal Computer Sales

By Paul Carton
March 25, 2008

PCs ain't selling like they used to.

That's the conclusion drawn from two recent ChangeWave surveys which show the economic slowdown is knocking back demand for personal computers. And our February surveys of consumers and businesses clearly show deteriorating PC sales going forward.

Over The Next 90 Days...

Only 8% of the 4,427 consumers surveyed by ChangeWave in late February say they'll be buying a laptop in the next 90 days - the lowest level of consumer laptop demand in the past 12 months.

The same trend was seen in desktop PC purchases, with just 6% saying they'll be buying one - also a low for the year.

Things weren't any better on the corporate side, where PC buying has also slowed precipitously. In February, only 73% of 2,204 corporate respondents said their company plans on buying laptops in the next quarter - down 4-pts from a year ago. It's the same pattern for desktops, with corporate purchases down 5-pts.

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By Paul Carton
March 18, 2008

Retail sales turbulence has slammed into the consumer electronics industry with a vengeance. ChangeWave's latest survey shows a sudden huge pullback in consumer retail purchasing on electronics by U.S. consumers - the largest one since we began measuring spending trends back in 2002.

The February 18-25 survey of 4,427 consumers looked at a range of popular gadgets in the consumer electronics industry, including digital cameras, iPods and video game consoles.

Only 19% of survey respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days compared to 33% who will spend less - an unprecedented sign of weakness in the consumer electronics space.

Consumer Electronics Trends: Hardest Hit Stores

Key electronics retail outlets will be disproportionately affected by the spending downturn, with Best Buy (45%; down 6-pts) and Circuit City (14%; down 3-pts) hit hardest. Amazon (16%; down 3-pts), Apple (6%; down 3-pts) and eBay (7%; down 2-pts) will also register declines in consumer retail spending.

Latest ChangeWave Corporate Survey Shows a Striking Downturn

"All roads indeed lead to Rome..." -- Richard Le Gallienne, poet

ChangeWave's latest corporate survey results are in and the findings lead to a clear, if less poetic, conclusion - the U.S. economy has already veered into recession.

The survey of 3,345 respondents working in U.S. companies - conducted February 27th through March 5th - reveals a sharp downturn in corporate sales projections for the 1st Quarter, along with a bearish outlook going forward.

Negative capital spending, reduced visibility, and an increase in canceled orders provide additional details of a U.S. economy that is clearly in recession. Here are some highlights:

1st Quarter 2008 Sales: Only one-in-five (20%) respondents now project that their company sales will come in Above Plan for the 1st Quarter - 8 percentage points less than the previous quarter. Another 30% report their company sales will come in Below Plan, 5-pts worse than previously.

Just how striking a downturn it is can be seen in the following chart, which shows the last four years of corporate surveys. Note that in the current survey (Mar '08) the percentage projecting Below Plan sales is higher than the percentage projecting Above Plan sales.

You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a downturn of this magnitude in a ChangeWave corporate survey. Importantly, these results echo earlier ChangeWave findings pointing to a downturn in both corporate IT purchasing and consumer spending.

But there's more:

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Lately, there's been some skepticism on whether Garmin (GRMN) is ever again going to enjoy monster growth. The world's number one GPS manufacturer has seen its stock price tumble 60% in the last four months, and is currently still in freefall.

So what gives? Has the Street given up on one of its former high flyers? They've certainly got an excuse. Not only did Garmin's average unit selling price drop precipitously last quarter, but their CFO recently predicted it will drop another 20% in 2008.

Yet there's another side to the story which we've learned through surveying our 15,000-member expert research network. And what we've uncovered is that Garmin (GRMN) has now achieved near total domination of the U.S. marketplace.

During February we conducted two ChangeWave surveys on GPS - one on consumer GPS trends (n = 3,773) and the other on corporate purchasing trends (n = 2,013). Here's what we found:

Consumer GPS Trends

Our February 18-25 survey of consumers who own a GPS navigation device, showed Garmin with a 56% market share - an increase of 4 percentage points since the previous survey in January 2008. Garmin's percentage towers over its closest rival Magellan, which captured only 12%.

Going forward, Garmin (54%; up 5-pts) remains first on the map in terms of planned consumer purchases of GPS navigation devices for the next 90 days. TomTom is second with 8% (down 1-pt), and Magellan has fallen to third with just 4% (down 2-pts).

ChangeWave Survey Shows Continued Deterioration in Consumer Spending

In the old days, they'd cut off the heads of bearers of bad news. Hopefully, you'll spare me.

ChangeWave's latest consumer survey shows a continued deterioration in U.S. consumer spending trends with no signs yet of any bottom. And in a striking finding, the survey results suggest that the government's economic stimulus package is likely to backfire.

The February 18-25 survey of 3,773 consumers focused on spending patterns going forward. Here's what we found:

Nearly two-in-five U.S. respondents (39%) say they'll spend less over the next 90 days than they did a year ago - 5-pts worse than January 2008 and the worst reading in a ChangeWave survey since 2002.

Just 25% say they'll spend more - 4-pts worse than previously. But even more ominously, the decline in spending growth is occurring across all income levels - including "super spenders" who earn more than $150,000 per year.

We asked respondents who are spending less to tell us why. Topping the list, two-in-five (40%) pointed to Inflation - 4-pts higher than in our January 2008 survey and a full 10-pt jump from only three months ago (November 2007).

In another clear sign of consumer unease, nearly three-in-ten (28%) of those spending less say it's to save more money - up 3-pts since January.

BlackBerry Maintains its Top Spot Amongst Business Users

By Paul Carton
February 26, 2008

In a January consumer survey, ChangeWave reported that Research In Motion’s (RIM) BlackBerry was “continuing to take the smart phone market by storm.”

Now the latest ChangeWave numbers are in on the corporate side of the smart phone ledger, and once again the clear momentum winner is RIM.

As part of a February 11-15 corporate survey, ChangeWave asked respondents involved with IT spending decisions who the manufacturer was of the smart phones their company currently provides.

Nearly three-in-four respondents (73%) cited Research In Motion as the manufacturer of their company’s smart phone.

While the RIM percentage is unchanged from the previous survey in November 2007, RIM’s market dominance over arch rival Palm (PALM) has continued to expand.

New ChangeWave survey confirms U.S. business spending has entered a recession

By Paul Carton
February 25, 2008

ChangeWave's latest corporate IT spending survey points to a negative growth rate for 2nd Quarter 2008 – and the findings confirm that U.S. business spending has already entered into a recession.

The survey found nearly one-in-four respondents (23%) report their company’s IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) in the 2nd Quarter, 3-pts worse than ChangeWave’s previous survey in November 2007. Only 15% say spending will increase – an unprecedented 9-pt drop from previously.

New ChangeWave Survey Shows Why Solar Energy Keeps On Shining

By Paul Carton

"Keep your face to the sunshine..." -- Helen Keller

No matter where you look, alternative energy is the topic du jour. Driven by the economics of record-high crude oil, the spotlight is shifting to non-traditional energy sources, particularly solar.

But while solar stocks were some of the biggest gainers for much of last year, recently the segment has taken big hits - with several key leaders such as First Solar (FLSR) SunPower (SPWR) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) down as much as 50% off their 52 week highs.

To find out what's going on with solar and the other alternative energy segments, we surveyed 182 ChangeWave Alliance members working directly in the industry. The survey was conducted December 18-26.

Where Does VMware Go From Here?

By Paul Carton

Virtualization software leader VMware (VMW) was one of the great stock stories of 2007, skyrocketing after its IPO and ending the year up 63%. But in an abrupt reversal, investors have pummeled the stock during 2008 - including a 33% plunge immediately after VMware's latest earnings announcement.

And yet, while the software maker's 4th quarter revenue did fall slightly short of Street projections, sales still rose 80% and earnings surged more than 150% - beating the consensus forecast by 2 cents a share.

Nonetheless, many analysts appeared spooked by VMware's revenue shortfall, citing fears of competitive pressures from rivals such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Citrix Systems (CTXS) and IBM (IBM).

But are these competitive fears, and the resulting stock meltdown, justified?

To find out ChangeWave took a close-up look at the virtualization market - including the ongoing horserace between VMware, Microsoft and other key vendors. A total of 1,368 respondents involved with IT spending in their company participated in our January 2008 survey.

Here's what we found:

The Virtualization Horserace

We asked respondents which virtualization software vendor(s) their company utilizes (note that one-in-four said their company uses virtualization software or services).
Among that group, 58% said their company currently uses VMware software - 3 points more than in our previous survey in October 2007.

Survey Shows Explosive Apple Mac Sales and High Leopard Ratings

By Paul Carton

Nobody ever said Apple Mac users were a patient lot. But the waiting is over for the Leopard operating system - and judging by ChangeWave's latest consumer survey, Mac buyers found it well worth the wait.

To gauge the initial reaction to Leopard and to take a fresh look at the ongoing slugfest between Apple, Dell and Hewlett-Packard, we surveyed ChangeWave Alliance consumers the week of January 2-8. A total of 4,604 participated.

Here's what we found:

Apple Mac Sales Skyrocket
Past 90 Days: Consumer sales of Apple laptops (17%; up 3-pts) and desktops (16%; up 6-pts) took an astonishing leap over the holidays. The chart below shows just how dramatic a transformation in market share this represents for Apple.