By Paul Carton
May 11, 2009

Back in February, ChangeWave surveys showed a leveling off in the rate of IT spending decline. But what's going on with consumers and their personal computers? Are PCs on track for recovery or does the market remain stuck in low gear?

According to our April survey of 3,231 consumers, we've picked up a jump in planned laptop spending going forward - and it's being led by escalating Netbook demand.

But what does this mean for PC manufacturers, and Apple in particular?

PC Outlook: Next 90 Days

A total of 8% of respondents plan to buy a laptop in the next 90 days - 2-pts higher than in our February survey and the first recorded uptick in 17 months. Note that planned spending on desktops (4%) remains flat.

These findings concur with our latest survey results on the overall consumer electronics market, which also shows signs of stabilizing - albeit at historically low levels.

But more importantly, the uptick in laptops is at least partially due to the fact that an already strong demand for Netbooks is continuing to escalate. Since we first reported higher consumer interest in the more affordable mini-laptops, overall Netbook demand has skyrocketed.

Do you think the computer you plan on buying over the next 90 days will be a netbook?

Currently, nearly a quarter of respondents (23%) who plan to buy a laptop in the next three months say it'll be a Netbook. That's 5-pts higher than in our February survey. That's also good news for the leading Netbook manufacturers including Hewlett-Packard, Acer, and ASUS.

But what do these trends mean for Apple?

Although Apple doesn't yet offer a Netbook, rumors continue to swirl and analysts remain divided on whether an "Apple-Book" is going to be announced in the coming months. Regardless, there are two conclusions that can be drawn from our current PC survey data on Apple:

Still, there's the lingering issue of Apple's lack of a Netbook.

A Closer Look at Apple Mac Sales

The Street has not expected Apple to outperform in terms of Mac sales thus far in 2009, and our survey results support this thesis - as does Apple's latest earning announcement of only 2.2 million Mac units sold for the quarter, the first year-over-year decline in 5 years.

First the big picture - based upon our survey results, overall consumer PC sales languished during the 1st Quarter; hardly surprising considering the tough economic environment.

In terms of overall sales, just one-in-ten respondents (10%) say they bought a laptop over the past 90 days, and 5% a desktop - both down 1-pt since our previous survey in February.

Secondly, Apple's market share has also dropped in our survey among respondents who bought a computer over the past 90 days. Only 18% of actual purchasers say they bought an Apple laptop and 12% an Apple desktop in the 1st quarter - down 2-pts and 3-pts, respectively.

But when we zero in on the overall situation going forward we find a different story. The uptick in planned laptop buying represents a healthy sign for Apple. That is, if consumer buying of laptops comes bouncing back this spring - as this survey shows to be of considerable likelihood - Apple should be well positioned to benefit.

Remember, the entire uptick in planned PC purchases is occurring among laptops - Apple's sweet spot within its Mac franchise - even as planned spending on desktops remains essentially unchanged.

So what does this mean in practical terms?

While Apple planned laptop purchases (29%) are steady if unremarkable going forward - down 1-pt since the previous survey - if the overall consumer laptop market does take off during the next 90 days, it should mean a significant number of new Mac laptop purchases for Apple.

Bottom Line

The ChangeWave survey results show Apple Mac sales did slow during the early months of 2009, but that underperformance may simply be due to the fact the U.S economy was mired in recession.

Importantly, the current survey also shows the overall PC purchasing terrain shifting back into positive territory, with laptop manufacturers poised to be the biggest beneficiaries.

Of course, the increase in Netbook sales are an important contributor to the overall uptick in laptop purchasing intentions, and this does raise some important questions for Apple.

First and foremost, if the laptop rebound occurs primarily "down market," i.e., at price points below Apple's, could the company's lack of a Netbook line prove to be a strategic error for the Cupertino, California manufacturer?

It's too early to say for sure, but based upon the escalating Netbook demand we've been tracking, it's little wonder that the Apple Netbook rumors continue to circulate and are a source of major speculation among analysts.

However, with the wind finally at its back, it appears Apple is still well positioned to outperform in terms of Mac laptops going forward.

We'll continue to monitor this one closely in our ChangeWave surveys.

Hewlett-Packard

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) looks well positioned to benefit from the pick-up in PCs, with planned purchasing of H-P laptops (23%) up 1-pt even as desktops (25%) are down 3-pts. H-P also looks well poised to benefit from the jump in Netbook sales.

Importantly, H-P has also experienced relatively strong U.S. computer sales during the 1st Quarter. Nearly a third (31%) of PC buyers said they purchased an H-P desktop - up 4-pts since February - while 29% said they bought a laptop, up 2-pts.

Note that when reviewing these results, approximately 70% of H-P's sales come from outside the U.S., whereas our ChangeWave surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market.

Dell

Dell's consumer visibility, on the other hand, remains mixed, with laptops (29%) up 3-pts going forward and desktops (31%) down 1-pt.

While that's good news for Dell laptops going forward, note that the consumer market only represents about 20% of Dell's total business.

Also, actual consumer purchases of Dell PCs have once again slipped in recent months. Our latest consumer PC results show actual sales of Dell desktops (32%) and laptops (20%) dropped 1-pt each since February.

Note that we'll be taking a close look at the biggest components of Dell's business in our upcoming Corporate PC Purchasing survey, where it has recently registered historic lows in both desktop and laptop sales.

Jim Woods co-wrote this article