Even As Netbook Sales Remain Firm

By Paul Carton
February 24, 2009

While the technology is getting faster, consumer PC demand keeps getting slower and slower.

There's been yet another decline in PC buying, according to ChangeWave's latest survey of 3,115 consumers. The February 2-9, 2009 survey focused on PC purchasing trends, including the demand for low-end "Netbook" computers.

Tough Times for PCs

Going forward, planned PC buying remains at the lowest levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Only 4% of respondents say they'll buy a desktop in the next 90 days - 1-pt less than in our January 2009 survey. In addition, just 6% say they'll buy a laptop - unchanged from previously.

We also note that overall Consumer Electronics spending is at the lowest level since we began measuring consumer purchasing in 2002. Only 12% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days, compared to 43% who say they'll spend less - clear signs of further deterioration in this space.

Demand For Netbooks Remains Firm

Our previous survey showed low-cost, highly portable laptops with smaller screens - popularly known as Netbooks - have been one of the few beneficiaries of this tough spending environment. The latest survey results reinforce this finding.

Going forward, 18% of respondents say that the laptop they plan on buying in the next 90 days will be a Netbook, which is 4-pts higher than in January. The list of leading Netbook manufacturers includes Acer and ASUS.

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Purchasing Trends: Next 90 Days

Within the weaker overall PC spending environment, Apple planned laptop purchases (30%) for the next 90 days have improved 3-pts since our previous survey in January. But even as Mac laptops are managing to muddle through, planned desktop purchases (26%) have dipped 2-pts.

Note that the stabilizing trend we've picked up in Mac laptops going forward has occurred in the aftermath of the sharp drop we saw in planned Mac purchases back in our January survey.

NPD's latest data on January Mac sales confirms that there was indeed a sharp January downturn for Apple. NPD now estimates that actual Mac sales were down 6% for the month.

And even as our new February numbers show some stabilizing occurring in Apple market share, it's important to remember that this is occurring in a PC buying environment that is the lowest on record in a ChangeWave survey (6% for laptops and 4% for desktops).

H-P and Dell

In the case of Hewlett-Packard, visibility appears similar to our January results - with planned desktop purchases unchanged at 28% and planned laptops (22%) dipping 1-pt. In viewing these H-P results, keep in mind that approximately 70% of its sales come from outside the U.S., whereas our surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market. Also, this survey focused exclusively on consumer PC sales. Our corporate PC results will be released later this month.

In the case of Dell, things just keep getting tougher and tougher. Planned consumer purchases of Dell Desktops (32%) and Laptops (26%) for the next 90 days have both fallen 2-pts.

Satisfaction Guaranteed?

In terms of customer satisfaction, there's no question which company is the industry leader.

Among respondents who bought an Apple Mac over the past 90 days, 81% say they are Very Satisfied. This compares to a 55% Very Satisfied rating for Dell and 52% for H-P.

We note that ASUS (67% Very Satisfied) and Acer (61% Very Satisfied) both ranked highly in the current survey - yet one more sign of the powerful impact Netbooks are having on the consumer PC market.

The question that arises: Even with the big hits Apple Mac Laptops have taken in our September and January surveys, why are they still managing to somehow muddle along in this incredibly tough spending environment?

For the answer, take another look at the above satisfaction chart.

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Jim Woods co-wrote this article.