Massive Breakdown in U.S. Consumer Holiday Spending
Dismal 90-Day Outlook Hits All Major Spending Categories
By Paul Carton
November 12, 2008
If you think October was bad for U.S. retailers, wait till you see what's in store for November.
ChangeWave's latest consumer spending survey shows yet another giant downturn in U.S. consumer spending going forward. And relatively speaking, it's far more pronounced than the October downturn.
The survey of 2,763 U.S. consumers, completed November 3rd, focused on spending patterns for the next 90 days, including the holiday season. Here's what we found:
Grim Consumer Spending Outlook
Nearly three-in-five (59%) respondents now say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 7-pts worse than previously. Only one-in-ten (10%) say they'll spend more - 8-pts worse than previously.

"These findings strongly support the thesis that fourth-quarter earnings will be far more painful than currently expected," said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing.
But why are consumers spending less? Saving More Money (33%; up 7-pts) and Reducing Debt (31%; up 2-pts) were cited as the dominant reasons. Reduced Income (33%; up 7-pts) has also shot up as a main reason.
Weak Consumer Outlook Hits All Major Spending Categories:
Spending is down for all consumer categories this holiday season compared to the previous holiday season (Nov 2007 survey). And in nearly all instances, spending is down compared to just six weeks ago (Sep 2008).
Spending on Restaurants/Everyday Entertainment looks particularly weak, down a net 39-pts from a year ago to a new all-time low. Similarly, Consumer Durable Goods is now registering a new all-time low.
But Consumer Electronics remains one of the weakest spending categories of all - a big change from past holiday seasons when a surge in the sector normally occurs at this time of the year. Only 19% say they'll spend more on Consumer Electronics over the next 90 days compared to 43% who say less - a net 40-pts worse than one year ago.

Double Whammy for Best Buy
In terms of home entertainment shoppers, the findings point to a extraordinarily weak holiday season for Best Buy (BBY), with only 44% saying they'll shop there over the next 90 days - down 7-pts from a year ago, and a 3-pt decline from September 2008.
This is the lowest November reading for Best Buy we've ever seen. The electronics giant faces a double whammy - not only is this the weakest consumer electronics season in years, but among those who are buying, large numbers are fleeing Best Buy for the discount retailers.
As the following chart shows, discounters Wal-Mart (18%; up 5-pts), Sam's Club (12%; up 3-pts) and Costco (27%; up 3-pts) are rapidly picking up share in the home entertainment and computer/networking market.
Over the next 90 days, which of the following stores do you think you and your family will shop at for home entertainment and computer/ networking products? (Choose No More Than Three)

With results like this, it doesn't come as a surprise that Best Buy cut their forecast today on slumping sales and Circuit City filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy on Monday.
Tiny Uptick in Consumer Sentiment
The survey also asked respondents about their current impressions of the economy - and while consumer sentiment still looks awful, some of these indicators aren't quite as dire as in September.
A total of 15% now think the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to improve over the next 90 days - 3-pts better than a month ago. And while a huge 57% believe the overall direction of the U.S. economy will worsen, that number is 9-pts better than previously.

In another small positive, 14% now say they are More Confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago, 7-pts improved from previously. Nearly two-thirds (64%) continue to say they're Less Confident, but that's also a 5-pt improvement.
But even as the above findings show the slide in consumer sentiment may be starting to stabilize, there are other far less encouraging signs.
Retail Store Trends
For the sixth consecutive survey, Costco (COST; Net Score = +8) and Wal-Mart (WMT; +5) remain the overall retail leaders going forward. Once again, it's traditional retailers - Sears (SHLD; -13), Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY; -12), Macy's ( M; -10), JC Penney (JCP; -9) and Linens N Things (-8) - that are showing the greatest weakness going forward.

In a nutshell, while everyone knows that it's going to be a tough holiday spending season, these survey results show we're in the midst of a massive consumer spending breakdown that now has a huge percentage of the U.S. public squeezing all they can out of every dollar.
And that includes gift shopping dollars. By a 12-to-1 margin (48% Spending Less Money vs. 4% Spending More Money) respondents report they'll spend less money on holiday shopping this season than they did a year ago.
To stay up-to-date on our findings, sign up for our free newsletter
Jim Woods co-wrote this article.
Related ChangeWave Posts
-- Consumer Shock - Spending Takes a Big Turn for the Worse (10/7/08)
-- Downward Spiral for U.S. Economy (9/16/08)
-- Inflation's a Huge Drag as Energy Costs Transform Consumer Behavior (8/19/08)
Stumble It!



Comments (6)
Regardless of what we are told by the media and our leaders, the average American knows things are bad, and we are becoming frieghtened. Spend some time around young people, and you will hear fear, anger, and resentment. They are struggling and confused.
Spend some time with old people, and you will hear the same thing. It was not supposed to be like this, and we are not ready for it. It has NEVER been quite like this, and folks know it. They are concerned for their kids, grandkids, and themselves.
Those of us with children at home to feed, clothe, and educate are silently petrified. Juggling the bills and casting a wary eye on employers is causing high anxiety, as we comtemplate just how fragile tings are. How many weeks could we survive with no pay check? What would we do if the job went away? How would we care for our families?
By now, almost everyone knows someone going through this. It is going to keep getting uglier for a while. I don't need to see survey numbers to instinctively know this, but they do help dramatically with investment decisions.
Thank you, ChangeWave, for this very real and vital information.
Posted by Dragonfly | November 16, 2008 11:18 AM
Posted on November 16, 2008 11:18
"Dragonfly" is not aware of the Depression of the '30s when he or she says it's "NEVER been this bad".
. At the depth of the Depression the unemployment rate hit 25%, whereas now it's around 7%.
There was no FDIC to insure bank accounts, while now they're insured to $250,000.
About 9000 banks failed in the Depression, whereas the big guys are being bailed out now by the taxpayers.
In the Depression, there was no unemployment insurance program, whereas now we have unemployment insurance but also extensions of the rather long coverage established by governments.
The present situation may get a bit worse before it gets better, but it will NEVER again get as bad as it was in the 1930's.
Posted by J. Hughes | November 17, 2008 6:29 PM
Posted on November 17, 2008 18:29
I'm worried about the DTV conversion in February 2009. It is obvious from the results of Best Buy and Circuit City, that people aren't rushing out to replace their analog TV. A know of several single mom's that let their $40 government coupons expire for conversion boxes as they didn't have the $20 difference. I haven't run into one senior citizen yet that understands how to connect and program a DTV converter box. A lot of them have a piece of black electrical tape on the face of their VCR so they don't have to watch the 12:00 blink all the time. Yet, new flat screen TV's are sitting on the store shelves not selling very well. I have never seen a flat sreen TV in anyone's home in my neighborhood. I can afford to buy a new TV, but there is nothing wrong with my CRT models. I'm saving my money in case things get worse, and only purchasing a new product if absolutely necessary. I took all the money in my retirement accounts out of stocks and put it into cash this past January. I'm in no hurry to buy stocks either.
Posted by Craig | November 17, 2008 6:46 PM
Posted on November 17, 2008 18:46
For the current generations of Americans, this has to be the real wake up call. Obama's election has proved that the wake up call has been heard and heeded.
Now what needs to be done is for real incentives to be created for on-shore jobs. Manufacturing products that have to be shipped at great expense and consumption of oil makes little sense any more.
Automation and investment can recreate manufacturing and create new jobs here in the USA. Transportation costs could be reduced by having distributed manufacturing operations. Long term planning for a real Green economy and reduced carbon footprint is a seriously misunderstood set of objectives.
The war in Iraq and the total lack of future and long term planning by successive administrations have seriously weakened this country economically and militarily. Creation of an effective terrorism-fighting force would use more technology and cultural/language opportunities as well as ensure America's citizens security.
The continuous chasing of college courses and subsequent job chasing trying to figure out how to pay loans has weakened the core competency of the USA technology.
There has to be ways to pay for college degrees that lead to technological breakthroughs with economic advantages.
Posted by B. Cawley | November 17, 2008 10:47 PM
Posted on November 17, 2008 22:47
I was interested when I read Craig's comments. I don't have a flat screen TV either but everyone that I have rented to (especially those who didn't pay their rent) have had incredible TVs and either cable or satellite installed. I am not sure how all of this will affect them but I have to say that I am amazed at the number of low income households that have the TVs while many of my friends do not. It shows you their priorities and maybe even some idea of how the flat screens will sell this holiday season. I suspect that the middle class will be the ones that cut back spending the most.
Posted by Joe | November 19, 2008 8:55 AM
Posted on November 19, 2008 08:55
"j.Hughes" is correct in pointing out that things were worse in the Depression, and that we are not likely to suffer to that extent again. Actually, the word was "never", but I prefer "unlikely".
I should have been more clear in my commentary, as I certainly do know about the depression. I meant that things have never been like this in my lifetime, and I am 61.
Actually, things really have never been this way, and with all due respect, no one knows where this unwinding is going to end up. In the 30's, the world was not interconnected the way we are now, and we were not competing for scarce resources and against cheap labor the way we are now. We manufactured what we needed, and did not depend on imports. Financial markets were not open to computerized, international assult, and information flowed slowly. We were also not under attack by terrorists, and do not think for one minute that our enemies have gone away. They are watching this play out, too, and with much glee are plotting ways to help us fall further.
My point was and is, we are in no man's land without a map. All the things that used to work in "fixing" the financial system are no longer working. Our economy has been propped up with debt, and we are still bogged down in a Middle Eastern conflict that is draining the nations wealth at a rate of $9,000,000,000 each and every month....ad infinitmtum. Meanwhile, our weak, ineffectual, pandering leadership does not have a clue. That they could even think about flushing the auto industry and all the jobs, taxes, etc. that go with it at this point in time is preposterous. The money needed right now is less than 3 months of the cost staying in Iraq!
An no, I am not a fan of Detroit and all of the management problems there. I don't want to turn this into a Detroit conversation, but I will point out that all business failures are failures of management.
Hold on folks. We are going lower, and we are going to stay there for much longer than most people seem to think.
Posted by Dragonfly | November 22, 2008 11:55 AM
Posted on November 22, 2008 11:55