Apple Ups The Ante With 3G iPhone
But RIM's almost ready to counter
By Paul Carton
July 9, 2008
It's been just over a year since the iPhone was released, and Apple (AAPL) is upping the ante in the smart phone wars.
We're talking about the release of the new 3G version of the iPhone.
Our latest ChangeWave survey of 3,567 consumers - conducted in the aftermath of Apple's June 9th announcement on the release of its 3G model - shows the next generation iPhone having a tsunami-like impact on the smart phone market.
But hold on...
Market leader Research-In-Motion (RIMM) - maker of the ubiquitous BlackBerry - hasn't taken this latest salvo lying down. The company has up to three new releases on the horizon that it expects will provide highly attractive alternatives to the 3G iPhone.
The Coming Apple Tsunami
We asked consumers who currently own a smart phone or who plan to buy one in the next 90 days to tell us the manufacturer.
RIM (42%; unchanged) holds steady as the consumer smart phone market leader among current smart phone owners, even as second place Palm (14%) has sunk to a record low.
But the biggest mover here is the Apple iPhone (11%; up 2-pts) - which continues to make major inroads in the consumer marketplace. Having gained market share for the fourth-consecutive survey, it is now close to wrestling the number two spot away from Palm.
To stay up-to-date on ChangeWave's future smart phone survey findings, simply sign up for our free newsletter.
Good news for Apple - but it's when we asked respondents about their planned smart phone purchases over the next 90 days that the full extent of the marketplace transformation becomes apparent.
An astonishing 56% of respondents who plan to purchase a smart phone in the next 90 days say they're getting an Apple iPhone - a huge 21-pt leap from the previous survey.
The chart below shows just how dramatic a jump in market share this represents.
Going forward, RIM's share of consumer planned purchases is set to take a significant hit over the next 90 days, falling 6 pts to 23%. Palm remains a far distant third with just 3%.
Note that the above chart focuses exclusively on the 10.5% of total survey respondents who say they plan on buying a smart phone during the next 90 days. The 10.5% represents a sharp jump from our previous survey in March, and it is the highest percentage of planned smart phone buyers we've recorded in a ChangeWave survey (see chart below).
So, what's the most likely explanation for such a large-scale projected increase in smart phone buyers going forward? It's the anticipation and publicity surrounding the imminent release of the 3G iPhone.
Another reason for Apple's continued popularity is its incredible customer satisfaction rating. An extraordinary four-in-five iPhone owners (78%) report they're Very Satisfied with their iPhone. RIM ranks second, with a highly respectable 54% of its customers saying they're Very Satisfied. Palm (29%), while up a few points since our previous survey, still ranks near the bottom in terms of customer satisfaction.
In another positive for the new 3G iPhone, better than one-in-two current iPhone owners (55%) say they're Very Likely to buy the 3G iPhone for themselves or someone else in the future. And many don't plan to wait long. Among this group, half (50%) say they'll purchase within the first 90 days of release.
RIM Gets Set to Counterattack
While the 3G iPhone announcement has catapulted Apple into the lead over RIM in terms of planned consumer smart phone purchases, it should be remembered that RIM has a huge lead of its own in the corporate smart phone market. RIM is also still the leader among current owners in the consumer market.
Moreover, RIM isn't sitting idly by while Apple roles out the 3G iPhone. The Canadian manufacturer has multiple plans in motion to counter Apple's momentum among consumers - including an already announced new product release (the Bold) and two likely additional product releases (the Thunder and Kickstart).
Next week we'll see what Alliance respondents have to say about RIM's new counteroffensive - and how the smart phone wars continue to shake up the service provider space.
Get ready - multiple battles are underway.
To stay up-to-date on ChangeWave's future smart phone survey findings, simply sign up for our free newsletter.
Jim Woods co-wrote this article.
Related ChangeWave Smart Phone Articles
-- Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive (August 4, 2008)
-- Research in Motion vs. Palm - A Comparison (July 29, 2008)
-- Research In Motion Blows Away the Competition...(June 3, 2008)
-- iPhone vs. BlackBerry: Which Do Consumers Love Most? (April 29, 2008)
-- Smart Phone Wars: Apple vs. RIM vs. ...the Android Operating System? (April 1, 2008)
-- RIM Dominates the Corporate Smart Phone Market (February 26, 2008)
In the News
-- The Second Coming: Ars goes in-depth with the iPhone 3G (7/14/08)
-- Initial Impact Of 3G IPhone On BlackBerry Muted: UBS Report (7/14/08)
-- iPhone 3G Sell A Cool Million In the First Weekend (7/14/08)
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Posted by Paul Carton on July 9, 2008 12:06 PM
Comments (6)
RIM's in for the fight of its life come the next three months.
Simply putting some iPhone like exterior trimmings on a Blackberry ain't going to stop this tsunami. The best thing that could happen to RIM is that Apple underestimates the demand and leaves tens of thousnads of people waiting for an iPhone for weeks if not months.
But Apple's been good at estimating demand well beyond the first three days and so I wouldn't bet on it.
Either way, SDK & Apps Store dual are going to be the killer apps. really put the hurting on RIM.
Posted by lrd | July 9, 2008 3:31 PM
Posted on July 9, 2008 15:31
I am a teacher and I am absolutely amazed how popular the iPod and the iPhone are with all the kids at school. It is the "cool" must-have gadget to be part of todays version of the in crowd. I have a basic Verizon Wireless razor cellphone which works just fine for me so I am not planning on joining the frenzy over the new 3G iPhone. But I am just amazed how kids who already have the 2G iPhone are saying how they are going to be getting the 3G iPhone? I am sure it is better as every new model is usually better than the previous one but to me this is much more about being cool than any type of logical decision making. But after all they are kids I guess and logic rarely comes into play when they go shopping. I finally broke down and bought Apple's stock today when it went down for whatever reason(I don't care because I got it cheaper). I completely kicked myself for not buying Apple when the iPod came out. I had to endure watching every kid at school get one while I kept saying it was just a fad and Microsoft's Zune was going to replace it because no one can compete with Microsoft and their money. This time I am hitching my wagon to Apple's iPhone and will watch my stock go up while watching in amazement again as all the kids "Have to have it or they'll just die if they don't" as I have already heard them say so many times I actually could vomit! I should mention I teach in a middle class neighborhood and maybe that has something to do with it because I don't think everyone could possibly afford to buy one in some of the poorer school districts.
Posted by Jenny S | July 9, 2008 9:02 PM
Posted on July 9, 2008 21:02
The iPhone is not a smart phone. It is a portable computer, and a phone, and an ipod. Unless Rim can come out right away with a groundbreaking
computer operating system, my money is on Apple.
Push email may have attracted users to Rim in the past but that is not an issue now for Apple and they will steamroll over Rim like they did to all the ipod competitors of the last few years.
Posted by orytek | July 9, 2008 9:37 PM
Posted on July 9, 2008 21:37
This has really shaken the market up, but I don't understand why you have excluded Nokia and Windows Mobile from the analysis.
Posted by Jbradford | July 10, 2008 4:11 AM
Posted on July 10, 2008 04:11
Nokia and Win mobile were probably excluded in this article because they are not that important for making the point the author is trying to make. In the US market, they are both below palm in market share I believe (haven't been keeping up on scores lately).
My thoughts, who knows if it's correct :)
Posted by rand | July 10, 2008 9:25 AM
Posted on July 10, 2008 09:25
I don't see what all the fuss is about, it's just the same thing everyone bought last year, only faster. It still can't copy and paste or take videos. I'd like a flash built into the cam for that amount of money, too.
Posted by ktrbn | July 14, 2008 5:21 PM
Posted on July 14, 2008 17:21