March 13, 2008

Party Time at Costco and Wal-Mart

Recessions are usually bad times for retailers, but despite the slow national economy and plummeting housing market it's party time at Costco (COST) and Wal-Mart (WMT).

Business is up and the good times will continue for both discount retailers, according to ChangeWave's latest consumer spending survey. While most other retail chains will see less spending by consumers over the next 90 days, Costco (+8) and Wal-Mart (+2) are bucking the trend and will see more.

Who will be the biggest retail losers going forward? Look for particularly bad numbers from Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY; -10), Macy's (M; -8), and Sears (SHLD; -8).

JC Penney (JCP; -7) also looks weak. Mr. Buffet recently spent a pretty penny on the Texas-based chain and - while long term it may prove wise - he's going to take a hit on his investment short term, according to our numbers. Sorry Warren.

The Gap (GPS; -6), K-Mart (SHLD; -6) and Nordstrom (JWN; -5) round out our list of big losers for the next 90 days

So why are Costco and Wal-Mart hot midst all the retail carnage?

Well, just for starters, consumer confidence is at its lowest point in 16 years and both retailers offer super low prices and big time convenience. Our survey even finds the super-spenders migrating towards Wal-Mart and Costco. Look for more Mercedes and BMWs in their parking lots.




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